5 Ways That Cesare Prandelli's Italy Can Defeat Joachim Loew's Germany

Theo Rowley@@LeRowleyX.com LogoContributor INovember 14, 2013

5 Ways That Cesare Prandelli's Italy Can Defeat Joachim Loew's Germany

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    With 2013 now in its penultimate month and temperatures across the land beginning to plummet, the clock ticks relentlessly towards the searing heat of next summer's World Cup in Brazil.

    Of the 32 slots, there are only 11 spaces remaining and 21 nations with varying pedigrees—some first-time qualifiers, some regulars—now wait with baited breath to see who can make it through the gauntlet of the play-offs.

    Among the first European teams to achieve qualification (Netherlands were the first, in case you were wondering) were Italy and Germany. 

    To anyone who decrees this match to "just be a friendly," the prestige of this fixture needs reiterating: These two titans of football, these historical heavyweights, will both be vying for the win.

    Between them, they have amassed seven World Cup successes, in which gargantuan bouts have ensued. There is even a plaque at the Estadio Azteca to commemorate 1970's "Game of the Century," which Italy won 4-3.

    A World Cup without either of these two titans just doesn't feel the same, such is their calibre.

    Italy currently lead the head-to-head (15 wins out of their 31 encounters) and are also able to boast the record of having never lost to Germany in a major tournament. But it is German football which is the current plat du jour: Their momentum is scary.

    Ahead of Friday's game, let's take a look at five ways in which Italy boss Cesare Prandelli can maintain that enviable record and navigate past Joachim Loew's Germany.

    This list has been compiled by analysing data and statistics procured from WhoScored, Squawka and Soccerway, as well as looking at Germany and Italy's recent results.

Nullify the Attack with Defensive Midfielders

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    Italian football is renowned for its stringent defensive approach and, in turn, utilising it as a strength. The all-conquering AC Milan of the 1980s, the last team to win consecutive European Cups, displayed that with their catenaccio style.

    Managed by Arrigo Sacchi, the Rossoneriplaying a high line and with a defence containing the formidable Paolo Maldini and Franco Baresiwould pounce on a loose ball and work it patiently along the pitch, from back to front, before it was to be scored by Marco Van Basten, Frank Rijkaard or Ruud Gullit.

    Whilst the current Italy team cannot boast such an awe-inspiring phalanx of attackers, they do have the ethos and mentality instilled through their ranks to quash opposition attacks with a repressive defensive approach.

    There was a time in the last decade when it was fashionable for teams to deploy players in the "Claude Makelele role:" Poised just in front of his team's defence but behind the midfielders, this player would eruditely break up opposition play, then bring the ball forward.

    In recent games, the Azzurri have played not just one player in this role but three. The years-belying Andrea Pirlo, a perennial mainstay of the national team, is an automatic starter. When fit, so too is Roma's Daniele De Rossi.

    The third player ranges from Juve's Claudio Marchisio (who lined up alongside the duo when Italy exited this summer's Confederations Cup to Brazil) to either AC Milan's Riccardo Montolivo or their new boy Andrea Poli.

    The latter two, favouring attack-minded roles, may not be the best foil and would be better suited playing further up the pitch, interchangeably with Emanuele Giaccherini.

    Paris Saint-Germain's Thiago Motta would do well in this game. Physical and domineering yet with technical ability (he has averaged a 93.2 percent pass success in his 10 league appearances), he possesses the traits to disturb and deftly break up the German attack. 

Long-Range Shots Are Key

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    It is a rampant theory that Manuel Neuer is the world's best goalkeeper, an assertion further augmented by the fact he plays for the world's best team (judging by their trophy haul last season), Bayern Munich.

    An adept and agile 'keeper, Neuer is the last line of defence behind an already impenetrable wall of Bayern players. Even when through on goal, attackers still have a lot to do.

    With his club currently conceding just 8.3 shots per game (second only to Juventus across Europe), the 27-year-old uses his hulking framehe measures almost two metres (6'4")to be as valuable to his team as his attacking colleagues.

    Although not the best in Europe (Lille, Roma, Southampton and Tottenham have conceded fewer), the fact that the reigning German and European champions have leaked just seven goals in 12 league games owes much to Neuer's organisational ability and shot-stopping prowess.

    However, for all his virtues, he does have weaknesses. 

    Out of the seven international games in which he has played this calendar year, Neuer has only kept a clean sheet four times. Even then, that was against inferior opposition: Kazakhstan, Austria, Faroe Islands and Republic of Ireland.

    As recently as August, when Germany hosted Paraguay, there was a demonstration in how to bypass Neuer. The visitors stormed into an early 2-0 lead before being pegged back 3-3.

    The last time Italy and Germany met in a competitive domain, Mario Balotelli savaged the opposition defence and scored both goals in a 2-1 win. But it was also notable for the fact that his second strike was an emphatic effort, struck with raw power from outside the area: This is the way to beat Neuer.

Stymie the Threat of Mesut Ozil

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    At club level, Mesut Ozil and his gilded feet have left the English Premier League enamoured.

    Signed by Arsenal seemingly out of nowhere, in one of the more intriguing transfer sagas, he has left crowds, both home and away, in raptures with his deft touches and delicate play.

    But, of course, for Germany he has been doing this for a long time. Potentially the player of the tournament in the 2010 World Cup, he tormented England with a knockout, virtuoso performance which convinced Real Madrid to pull out the stops to sign him that summer.

    With eight goals in Germany's qualifying campaign (almost a quarter of their overall haul of 36), the 25-year-old now has 17 in 51 caps.

    If Italy are to win Friday's friendly encounter, ensuring that Ozil does not wreak more goal-scoring havoc will be key to their success.

    Deploying three holding midfielders is certainly the right start, but one of themmost probably Daniele De Rossiwill need to shadow him and also drop back to aid the back line.

Feed the in-Form Giuseepe Rossi

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    Favouring two strikers at the pinnacle of a 4-3-1-2 formation, Cesare Prandelli has a number of options in the striking department.

    The mercurial Mario Balotelli is the standout performer. Along with Daniele De Rossi, Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon, he is—as long as he is not suspended, of course—one of the first names on the team sheet. His 12 goals in 27 games justify this selection.

    If Italy are to beat Germany, though, it is imperative that Balotellithe scorer of five goals this seasonis paired with Fiorentina's Giuseppe Rossi.

    Whilst Southampton's Pablo Osvaldo provides a physical presence and Genoa's Alberto Gilardino is a tireless and meticulous worker, Rossi is, on current form, one of Europe's most potent and prolific strikers.

    Following a torrid time with injuries (chronic knee ligament damage saw him ruled out from October 2011 until this season), La Viola acquired the 26-year-old from Villarreal from January for just €10 milliona snip for a player who was averaging roughly a goal every other game prior to being scythed down.

    This season, he has been in irresistible form. With Fiorentina in fifth and very much in contention for the Champions League berths, Rossi has made an inspired start to life at the Artemio Franchi: 11 goals in 12 games (including a hat-trick against Juventus) see him top the goalscorers' chart.

    The only caveat to this scintillating run of form is that, despite starting all 12 of Fiorentina's games, he has had to be subbed off on nine occasions, clearly still short of match fitness.

    If Rossi does struggle to last the full 90 minutes, there are others who can deputise and, of course, Prandelli will be keen to give players a chance to stake their claim.

    Following his transfer from Roma in the summer, Osvaldo has not scored the goals that he maybe would have hoped, but four strikes in his 12 international appearances show he and his presence do warrant a space.

    Torino's Alessio Cerci should also be given a run out. His eight goals have helped his team begin to look up the table, rather than down.

Deploy Youth Players as Surprise Attack

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    In recent years, Germany have led the way in demonstrating how to nurture and harness prodigious talent.

    Following their dismal performance at Euro 2000the nadir being when England's Alan Shearer rose to head home the solitary goal of a 1-0 defeatan overhaul of the German youth system was put in place.

    They embraced the fact that there was a surge in immigration. The German FA relaxed laws on players born outside of the country going on to represent their adopted nation, similarly to those who were born in the country but into non-German families.

    Subsequently, many players have since gone on to enjoy successful roles for Der Mannschaft. Of the current crop, Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira and Sidney Sam were all either born outside of Germany or to non-German parents yet are established first-teamers. 

    With their swashbuckling brand of football reaping virtuesas Bayern Munich, a team who play very similarly to Loew's Germany, are testament tothe rest of Europe looks on in awe.

    The majority of nations have followed suit and as a result, the modern European game is flooded with exciting youngsters who have illustrious careers ahead of them.

    Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne is currently one of those enjoying an extended run in the team. Capped four times, he has also scored one goal, the consolation strike as Italy lost 2-1 to Argentina in August.

    Flourishing when playing out wide, he is the perfect foil for a target man striker. At club level, this is usually Gonzalo Higuain, but for Italy, Pablo Osvaldo would fit the mould.

    Although not in the squad this time, Sampdoria's Manolo Gabbiadini is, at the age of 21, also one for the future.

    It is unfortunate that PSG's Marco Verratti, out injured with knee discomfort, will also miss these exhibition games. He looks a very promising and exciting midfielder.

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