Can Manchester United Rely on Chris Smalling to Marshall Defence in 2015/16?

Chris Smalling led Manchester United onto the Old Trafford pitch as captain for the first time against Arsenal on Sunday, and given the season he has had, it seems unlikely that will be the last.

Michael Carrick, speaking to Sky Sports before the game (h/t the club's Twitter account) said of Smalling, "He's really developed in the last few months and become more vocal, a leader in the back four."

It has become a familiar refrain. At the end of April, on an episode of Sky Sports' Monday Night Football (h/t the Express), pundit and former Liverpool centre-back Jamie Carragher made a similar point, saying: 

He seems to be the one pushing out of defence and giving instructions to different people, and that can only help his own confidence with a bit of maturity as he gets older and starts taking on more responsibility.

Given that the captaincy is an important matter to Louis van Gaal, as he said when Wayne Rooney was announced as United's skipper,  the choice of Smalling in the absence of Rooney and Carrick feels significant.

The manager clearly has some degree of faith in Smalling's abilities as a leader.

In some ways his transition to senior man in United's back four is surprising. When he was sent off at the Etihad in the Manchester derby, it was for two rash actions, both of which could have been avoided. That felt typical of Smalling, always a defender with a mistake in him, as the cliche goes.

However, his development as a central defender had perhaps been judged a little harshly prior to his recent good run. It is a position where experience and maturity counts for a lot. Few would argue that Rio Ferdinand became one of United's best-ever defenders, but his peak years did not arrive until his late 20s.

Smalling turned 25 in November 2014, on the day he returned from his suspension. He marked that occasion with a superb defensive performance as United somehow engineered a victory in the face of Arsenal's attacking onslaught at the Emirates.

Smalling was key that day. He made five interceptions, which was five times as many as any of his teammates. He also made 15 clearances—more than twice the number of any of his teammates. 

In terms of his development, it is important to note that he—like Phil Jones—has often been played away from his best position. David Moyes in particular mostly used Smalling as a right-back.

While that experience may have been good for the defender in terms of developing his ability on the ball, it may also have delayed his learning in terms of understanding his primary position.

In terms of the question of whether he can be relied upon to become United's key leader in defence, it is important not to get too carried away by a run of good form. While that form has been consistent for most of the second half of this season, there are still questions that need to be answered.

The first is one of fitness. Smalling has had plenty of injury problems during his career. He has never hit 2000 minutes of league football in a season. Nemanja Vidic—a defensive leader if ever there was one—played over 3000 in the 2010/11 season, and hit the 2000 mark in both 2009/10 and 2013/14.

This is, of course, a question that cannot be answered in advance, but given his injury history, making contingency plans for him not being available will be important even if he is considered an automatic first-choice pick when fit.

The second is one of sustainability of form. For now there is plenty of cause for optimism in this regard. We are not talking about a few decent games, here, but rather a consistent series of displays. 2015 has been a very good year for him so far.

With a new contract signed, it is clear that Van Gaal believes Smalling to be an important part of his United side. His manager seems happy to rely on him. United still need to strengthen at centre-back—to mitigate against injuries if for no other reason—but Smalling will likely be key to United next season, whoever arrives this summer.

All advanced statistics per WhoScored.com.