Why 15 Goals Is Realistic Aim for Atletico Madrid's Jackson Martinez in 2015/16

Atletico Madrid's busy summer has seen plenty of changes take place in the squad with regards to the final third of the pitch, with Arda Turan and Mario Mandzukic leaving from last year's team.

In to replace them come Luciano Vietto, Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, the return from loan of Oliver Torres—and a €35 million swoop for Jackson Martinez, the Colombian striker who has been the stand-out name in Portugal over the past few years at FC Porto.

There will be plenty of expectation on the 28-year-old to fire Atleti to glory on account of his prolific nature in Portugal, but La Liga is a different beast. There are new club dynamics to consider, and there shouldn't be any thoughts of Martinez plundering 30 goals or anything like it in his debut campaign.

In fact, in La Liga play alone, achieving half that tally could feasibly represent success for Martinez.

Primeira to Primera

At a rate of a goal every 117 minutes over the entire duration of his stay in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, Martinez became one of the most sought-after strikers in Europe and one of the most regular names in the gossip columns. 

All told, he hit 92 in 133 games in all competitions, surpassing the 20-goal barrier in each of his three league campaigns at the Estadio do Dragao.

So if not there, why not in Spain? It's a tougher league for starters. There are more top sides: Three fight it out almost every season for the top spots and then one or two others might make a run for "best of the rest."

While in Spain, of course, after the three elite sides, anyone from fourth down to ninth last season could feasibly be included as a "good-to-very-good" opponent.

And that doesn't even include the likes of Rayo Vallecano or Real Sociedad, hugely tough teams to visit and beat, even if they don't have any semblance of consistency over the course of a season.

In 2014/15, Martinez scored 21 times. Extrapolated to account for four games a season fewer in Portugal, that equates to a potential 23-goal season or so. Last season's Liga saw only the world's best two players, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, reach that tally—43 and 48 respectively.

Neymar and Antoine Griezmann managed 22; Carlos Bacca 20. Nobody else, even in an offensive and technically strong league, managed to breach that barrier.

In 2013/14, only three players reached 20, and five the season before. It's a fantastic league with tremendous players, but that doesn't guarantee a free passage to goalscoring, especially for a new player from a weaker league who doesn't have time on his side to adapt.

Support Lines

That said, Martinez can be expected to lead the Atletico attack with great frequency, likely with Griezmann beside him and Luciano Vietto playing the support act off the bench, coming in for either starter for rotation, form or fitness purposes.

Powerful and adept at scoring with either his foot or head, Martinez is a good fit for Atletico's established style of build-up and chance creation, whether that is attacking set pieces or making strong runs through the centre of the penalty area to take advantage of clever through balls, which Koke, Tiago and others can provide.

It's also worth noting that Atleti scored five penalties last season, three netted by Mandzukic. That particular role is up for grabs.

Atleti Targets

Given their expenditure and the focus of the manager, Atletico will expect to once again challenge in the top three and hope to be fighting for the title come the last few weeks of the season.

In addition, they will be competitors in the latter stages of the Champions League and, presumably, Copa del Rey. All told, it will account for between 50 and 55 matches more than likely—and in attack particularly, they have the squad depth to cope.

What it means is that, assuming Martinez starts as a regular option to lead the attack but given Simeone's penchant for offensive changes, he can expect to play somewhere around 2,200 league minutes.

He'll get lots of chances if he works hard and shows good form in training, and some teams he will doubtless get far more success against than others—but he could also feasibly struggle early on, getting used to his team-mates' style and the expectations of him. He'll also be replaced, or be initially benched, to give Vietto and Fernando Torres starting opportunities.

Hitting 15 in league play, roughly one every 150 minutes, would therefore represent a more than reasonable return. Add in Champions League goals and Martinez will still likely push 20 in all competitions—and, unlike last season, he'll hope to have silverware to show for it in May.

Follow @karlmatchett