Dwight Powell is better than anyone thinks, possibly even the Mavericks

When the Mavericks acquired Rajon Rondo from Boston in December of 2014, rookie second-round pick Dwight Powell was considered by many Mavericks fans to be a “throw in” addition to the deal. In the event that the player headlining that deal decided to, oh, I don’t know, quit on Dallas in the middle of a playoff series, maybe Powell could one day be good enough to at least lessen that sting. Early on, Powell showed flashes of elite athleticism and upside, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. But he clearly had a long way to go to be an NBA-regular.

Then came the Silly Summer of ’16, in which the league’s cap spike turned all compensation models upside down. Coming off of a season in which he played just 14.4 minutes a night, Powell signed a four-year, $37.3 million deal with Dallas. From that point forward, Powell became a hot-button topic for Mavs fans. He had been paid before “doing literally anything,” according to the public outcry.

The argument had some merit, but in that bizarro offseason, this truly was the going rate. Miles Plumlee got $50 million; Bismack Biyombo a fat $72 million over four years. Those are both clearly terrible deals; nearly any contract will look good by comparison. The point is that those were the contracts given to bigs with the potential to be starting, impact players. The damage seemed to be done, as Powell and his deal became a pinata representative of an era of general ineptitude by Dallas’ front office.

However, as he wraps up his fourth year in the league, Powell’s deal has aged far better than those mentioned above. The reality is that Dwight Powell has become a good NBA player, and a heck of a lot of fun to watch.

 After stunting his growth a couple of times (remember when David Lee swooped in and promptly sent Powell back to DNP-Ville?) the Mavericks finally decided to give Powell the minutes he needed to develop. Certainly, a team with a record as poor as Dallas’ could use an infusion of talent at any position. The Mavs are not going to “pass” on a particular player because his skillset too closely resembles Powell’s. However, with Powell under contract for two more years, they do have to at least consider roster fit.

The reality is that Dwight Powell has been the Mavericks’ best player this season. Among regular rotation players, Powell is leading Dallas in PER (Player Efficiency Rating,) a distinction he carried last year as well. That might not be saying much for a team winning less than a third of their games (he’s 53rd overall among qualified players). But Powell has gone from looking lost and awkward, merely flashing signs of dynamic ability, to regularly looking explosive and crafty (while still mixing in the occasional gangly awkwardness). Before we get to proof of his development, I present to you one of my favorite moments of this abysmal Mavs season:

The is the sports incarnation of the “OH NO BABY WHAT IS YOU DOING???” GIF. My man clearly got too excited, wanted to make the play, and seemingly forgot where he was or how high basketballs can bounce for a second there. And honestly, through much of his first couple of years in Dallas, things of this nature were not all that uncommon.

Powell’s game is not particularly smooth, and he has to be near the league lead in time spent actually scrambling on the floor. But now? He’s near the league lead in plenty of other stats as well. Over the last two years, Powell has become one of the most lethal threats as a pick-and-roll finisher in the NBA. The chart below is filtered for players with at least one possession per game as the roll man, who also played in at least 40 games this year.

PPP=points per possession. We have horizontal chart limits, sorry

He simply does not miss at the rim, and this is the company he’s keeping in that regard. None of these players are considered offensive juggernauts, but they do enough at the rim to command respect and force opposing defenders to make tough decisions.

Two things here really highlight Powell’s development. First, he has displayed a real knack for finding routes to the rim. There isn’t much room here to operate but he finds a crease, and naturally, Barea finds him. Second, Barea has to make sort of a funky pass to get the fit, and Powell does a great job adjusting his body mid-air and finishing. It might not seem as remarkable of some of his thunderous dunks, but it’s every bit as valuable in his offensive repertoire.

Speaking of thunderous dunks (take the pun and like it, the Mavs had had a long year)…

This possession presented a very different situation than the previous image. It’s a hand-off that turns into a downhill roll. The Thunder have no interest in playing defense here, but that’s still Stephen Freaking Adams in the paint. Dennis Smith Jr. knows this pass will have to arch very high to keep it from Adams, but also knows Powell is plenty capable of elevating for it. When a player can get up like that and finish consistently – over one of the best defenders in the game – he’s impacting the geometry for your offense.

And while we’re on that Thunder game from February, two more quick ones. For a center/forward, Powell is pretty good about moving without the ball. He averages 1.3 points per possession on cuts – once again, right in line with players like Adams, Gobert, and Kanter. Here’s an example:

Again, it’s not pretty, but he just doesn’t stop moving. He’s unique among NBA big men in that he really does not seem bothered by having to play this way.

Commenting on a player’s effort, or any other intangible, is often perceived as a backhanded compliment. But that’s a legitimately huge component of Powell’s game and he pairs it with some serious tools. People around the team will often remark that Powell almost cares too much and that when he isn’t playing well he takes it exceptionally hard. At the end of this home game against the Thunder, he missed two potentially game-tying free throws with a minute to play (at 71%, Powell is merely average from the line for a modern-day center). Heading to the bench, he looked about as crushed as you’re ever going to see a player in a game of so little consequence.

After Dallas got a stop, this happened:

That possession is a disaster on every level. But after Powell got bodied to the baseline by three Thunder players, he went back up and forced overtime.

If we zoom out and consider not just pick-and-roll numbers, but true shooting percentage on all shots, Powell remains at the top of the list. Here we filter for players 6’10 or taller playing 13 minutes per game (basically, three bigs from each team).

Another chart, and more evidence that Dwight Powell is among the game’s best finishers at the rim.

Dallas has toyed with turning Powell into a stretch-ish forward over the last couple of seasons, with mixed results. As Powell attempted to add an outside shot last season, naturally, he took fewer of the shots he was comfortable with. Some players can be thrown off if they feel they are hurting the team as they try to find their way, especially early in their careers. Powell shot just 28.4% on roughly one 3-point attempt per game. At the outset of this season, it appeared that the Mavericks had, to an extent, shelved this experiment, played Powell more as a rim-runner, and unleashed his pick-and-roll prowess. Per Cleaning the Glass, Powell has basically stopped taking shots he tends to miss, and focused almost exclusively on ones he doesn’t.

Powell has finished more than 70% of his shots at the rim in all three seasons, putting him above the 90th percentile in each campaign. However, his mid-range game has never been strong enough to justify the volume, and this season he’s almost entirely cut those shots from his diet (down to just 18%).

There’s at least a glimmer of hope that his game beyond the arc might one day be serviceable as initially projected. Through the first 65 games of this season, Powell took just 53 threes (0.8 per game) and hit 26.4%. However, in the last 13 games, he’s jacked up 30 deep balls (2.3 per game) and connected on 46.7%. Requisite small sample size alert, but this proves the Mavs still think Powell could develop this part of his game. Perhaps now that he has gained the confidence that comes with being among the league’s elite with one skill, it has resulted in his ability to better develop another.

The question remains, though, of what exactly Powell is. Can he be a starting center, provided the right player is situated next to him in the frontcourt?

After starting just five games in his last two seasons in Dallas, Powell has now started 24 of the last 28. In 25.8 minute a game, he’s averaging 11.4 points and 7.2 boards. Powell is also good for nearly two assists and a steal per game. Simply put, that’s starter-level production. Is he going to be the third- or even fourth-best player on a contending team? That’s very unlikely. But is he a serviceable player earning his contract, a piece who should be considered part of the Mavs’ future? He absolutely is.

The concerns about fit and role pertain largely to his defensive ceiling, which is still a question mark. As the primary defender of the roll man in pick-and-roll situations, he’s giving up 0.87 points per possession, a mark which puts him in league with Clint Capela (again), Serge Ibaka, and John Henson. That’s a good group to be in.

Powell doesn’t get many blocks at all, as even when adjusted for minutes played he ranks near the likes of Kelly Olynyk and Enes Kanter. But he does play with a ton of energy, which results in more than his fair share of steals. With 1.4 steals per 36 minutes, Powell finds himself ranked near Steven Adams and Anthony Davis. The biggest area of concern for Powell defensively is learning to defend the paint without fouling. He’s committed a foul on 5% of the possessions the Mavs face when he’s on the floor, good (or bad) for the paltry 27th percentile. If you don’t block any shots and commit a ton of fouls, your post defense is untenable. However, that does seem like an area that, with another year or two in the league, he might be able to sort out to become passable.

At 6’11 and 240 pounds, Powell doesn’t struggle with his build like, say, Nerlens Noel. But, especially when matched up against slightly bigger and more experienced bigs, he can get muscled around on the glass. His quickness and effort result in a player who, at best, is an average rebounder.

So he has a couple of elite skills on the offensive end of the floor and is generally average in most other areas, save for a need to avoid foul trouble. He’s a notoriously hard worker, and given the Mavs’ recent experience with players like Chandler Parsons and Nerlens Noel, this matters.

This is probably not a bad time to mention that Powell will already be 27 this summer, with two more years on his deal. I don’t think Dallas should pass on a player like Mo Bamba – or any other big man, if he’s the best player on the board when they pick. The Mavericks need all the help they can get. However, if a draft pick or free agent signing does force Powell back to the bench, they should treat him like the talent he has shown himself to be. The likes of Salah Mejri and Mexi Kleber should not be taking minutes from Powell going forward. Dallas has had a very uneven season and generally a very depressing couple of years. But they have found something in Dwight Powell, and seemingly reluctantly developed him. He flourished, and should absolutely be a part of their plans for the next few seasons.