To win Brazil’s presidency, Lula should move to the centre

Like a sudden encounter with an anaconda, it was tighter than expected. Several polls had shown Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, beating Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing incumbent, by double digits. Some predicted that Lula would win over 50% in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, making a second round unnecessary. But in the actual vote on October 2nd he won only 48% to Mr Bolsonaro’s 43%. (The reason the polls undercounted Mr Bolsonaro’s supporters is uncertain, but it may be that many are “shy”, or suspicious of pollsters and reluctant to share their views with them.) The two candidates will face a run-off on October 30th, and Brazil faces a further month of polarisation .

Lula remains the narrow favourite, not least because Mr Bolsonaro repels so many voters: he is crass, bragging about his virility and sneering at women he deems unattractive. He is a Trumpian populist, who lies as easily as he breathes and imagines conspiracies everywhere. He makes no effort to stop the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. His handling of covid-19 was disgraceful. His circle overlaps with organised crime. He undermines institutions, from the Supreme Court to democracy itself. He hints that the only way he can lose the election is if it is rigged, and that he will accept no result except victory. He openly incites violence. In a recent poll, nearly 70% of Brazilians said they feared physical harm because of their political views.