Whether you prefer to call it Groundhog Day or déjà vu, for the third year in succession Chelsea's No. 8, Oscar, has seen a promising start to the season tail off after the New Year. The drop in performance has been so pronounced in each campaign that it surely can't be just coincidence. So what is it?
It could be because the Brazilian has been one of Chelsea's most involved players since he moved to London in the summer of 2012, though the same could also be said of Eden Hazard, who has been the jewel in the crown since arriving at Stamford Bridge in the same transfer window and has been ever-present this season. In contrast to his teammate, the Belgian's standards are constantly kept at a high level; he even improves when all logic suggests that his workload should take a negative toll.
Oscar was lightly employed during his first months at the club before exploding onto the scene with an impressive double against Juventus in the Champions League. From then on, the clamour for him to be included more often grew louder, a wish granted by manager Roberto Di Matteo and his successor, Rafael Benitez. Oscar would score a total of four goals in the Premier League that campaign, along with seven assists, though his impact diminished after the New Year.
Much of that was attributed to acclimatising to a new country and coping with the singular demands of Britain's winter fixture list and weather; not an experience a boy from sunny Sao Paulo would have been accustomed to.
The following season, however, saw a similar scenario: he improved his goal tally by netting eight times in the league (accompanied by five assists), though his brace in the 6-0 rout of Arsenal on March 22 were his only strikes after he capped an excellent individual display against Southampton with a goal on New Year's Day. At the start of the 2013-14 campaign, Oscar answered his manager's call to assume the No. 10 role ahead of the soon-to-depart Juan Mata and had scored four in the opening eight matches of the season. From being a key component of Chelsea's attacking plan, he saw his contribution wane significantly in the winter and spring.
And so to this season, where another excellent start saw any doubts over his worth to the side dispelled. The Brazilian purred with creative intent alongside fellow artistes Hazard and Cesc Fabregas, each bewildering the opposition before setting up Diego Costa for a string of simple finishes. There have also been some sublime goals, such as the free kick to open the scoring at Crystal Palace and the wonderful effort against Queens Park Rangers that he bent around the outstretched fingers of Robert Green with the outside of his foot.
With six goals and seven assists to his name so far, Oscar is on course for his most productive season yet as a Chelsea player in statistical terms, though it must be noted that he has not found the net for two months since he did so twice in the 5-0 evisceration of Swansea City on January 17. His last assist came the weekend before against Newcastle.
One theory for his midseason demise centres around the obvious question of fatigue. It is rare for any player to always deliver exactly what is needed in every match, and that is evident with the very best in the world with both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo experiencing dips in form over the past 12 months. Factor in that Oscar has not had a summer off for the past three seasons and any problems become exacerbated.
The 2012 London Olympics, the 2013 Confederations Cup and the 2014 World Cup have all seen Oscar play a prominent part. That volume of participation, when allied to an exhaustive club schedule with a team that almost always makes the latter stages of at least one cup competition, would tax even the most indefatigable human specimen. Add to that the lack of a winter break in England, something that is afforded to all other major leagues in Europe, and it is hardly surprising that his standards have slipped. If this is indeed the reason for his annual slump, then it is not going to get better any time soon with Oscar slated to compete with Brazil in this summer's Copa America.
All this might explain Oscar's current lack of impact, though it does not do anything to solve Chelsea's current issue. Jose Mourinho set up the team this season to play ostensibly with two central playmakers: one deep and one further forward in the classic No. 10 role. With Fabregas occupying the former position and Oscar the latter, the plan worked to perfection for the first few months of the season. The two dove-tailed beautifully, so much so that even when Crystal Palace decided that the way to stop Chelsea was to man-mark the Spaniard, the Brazilian simply dropped deeper and pulled the strings, unencumbered. And who were the scorers in the 2-1 win on that October day? Oscar and Fabregas.
That Oscar is less effective these days could well be a symptom of the general malaise around the squad which has centred around Fabregas' own drop in form. The team's puppeteer has momentarily lost his ability to prompt and probe effectively, with no assists since the humbling of Swansea by which time he had already accumulated 15 in the league. With Oscar previously excelling in combination with the former Barcelona man, it is possible that his fortunes are inextricably linked to that of his teammate. Perhaps if Fabregas rediscovers his mojo, the same will happen to his creative companion.
Sunday's 1-1 draw with Southampton was a case in point. The pair of them were extremely quiet for the majority of the first half, with Fabregas seeing several passes fail to hit their mark and Oscar being largely anonymous. The second half, however, saw a sizeable upturn in performance with both players much more involved in the game and causing continual problems for the Saints defence with their movement and distribution. Oscar still should have found the net at least once, having not been able to beat Fraser Forster with either a point-blank header or a one-on-one opportunity, though it was a more encouraging display from him than has been seen for a while.
That Oscar is reliant on others and is rarely the one to pick up the gauntlet to lead the charge when the team is off colour doesn't help; those occasions are generally when a team needs its creative sparks the most. He does, though, remain a player of exceptional natural ability and vision combined with an enthusiasm for tackling that is not often seen in players of his ilk. If he wants to continue to be a fixture in the team, he will need to add greater consistency to his rounded game as well as a degree of mental strength to impose himself on proceedings.
If Oscar continues to oscillate, Mourinho will not be shy in taking a proactive step by either dipping into a transfer kitty newly inflated with income from television rights deals and shirt sponsorship, or by switching the ever-blossoming Hazard into his coveted central role. Oscar has the talent to retain his status; he just needs to be able to stay the course.