Emanuel Navarrete Vs. Robson Conceicao: Odds, Records, Prediction (Updated With Betting Results)

In just the 20^th fight of his career, Robson Conceicao is getting his third chance to win a world title. He’s fallen short in his previous opportunities, and considering his Thursday night opponent, Emanuel Naverrete, is currently the best fighter at 130 pounds, it doesn’t seem likely that Conceicao’s latest chance will result in a different outcome than his first two. Here’s everything you need to know about Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Navarrete is coming off a surprisingly dominant victory vs. Oscar Valdez in August, and though Navarrete vs. Conceicao is on the undercard of the Shakur Stevenson vs. Edwin De Los Santos main event tonight, Navarrete’s power punching always can make for an impressive highlight reel. Still, Navarrete is aware of Conceicao’s abilities.

“Obviously, we know who I am fighting,” Navarrete said. “We know he is a real fighter. He is very strong, and it will be difficult. But like always, we are going to defend the title with the heart of a Mexican warrior.”

There’s little question that Navarette has the career momentum on his size. His only professional loss came in 2012. That was 11 years ago. Meanwhile, Conceicao has lost two of his last three fights, and he’s only fought two rounds in the past 14 months (his last opponent couldn’t answer the bell for the third round after an unintentional head clash knocked him loopy).

But Conceicao has been clear about what he’s going to do to Navarrete, even if he is somewhat apologetic for it.

“He is a good person and a tremendous fighter, and I am sure that we will have a great battle,” Conceicao said. “He has something that is the thing I want most in my professional life. I'm not coming to play. I'm coming for his title. Navarrete, I'm very sorry."

Here’s more info on the Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN and ESPN+ at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao odds

Earlier this week, Navarrete was a -1200 betting favorite. But apparently, big money has been coming in on Conceicao, because of this writing, Navarrete is -900 (wager $900 to win $100) while Conceicao is the +550 underdog (win $550 on a $100 bet). I’d ignore both money lines and instead look for better value by taking Navarrete to win by stoppage at +120.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Emanuel Navarrete to score a knockdown on Robson Conceicao at -125 and Shakur Stevenson to beat Edwin De Los Santos by decision at -250. If both of those props hit, you’d make a $150 profit on a $100 wager.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao records

Navarrete (38-1, 31 KOs) has established himself as the best junior lightweight in the world, and in the past few years, he’s had an impressive run of victories, beating Joet Gonzalez, Ruben Villa and Isaac Dogboe twice before absolutely outclassing Valdez.

Conceicao (17-2, 8 KOs) is a 2016 Olympic gold medalist who hasn’t seen quite as much success as a professional. He scored a nice win against the undefeated Xavier Martinez in 2022, but that was sandwiched by defeats against Stevenson and Valdez. Conceicao is clearly talented, but he hasn’t yet proven he can be successful at the most elite level.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao prediction

Navarrete is one of the most active boxers in the sport, and he keeps improving. Conceicao is talented, but I don’t think he’ll stand up to continued power shots by Navarrete. Say, Navarrete by stoppage in the 10^th round.

UPDATE: In a tough matchup, where Navarrete knocked down Conceicao twice, the two men fought on even terms, and the bout was declared a majority draw (one judge had it 114-112 for Navarrete, and other two had it 113-113.

That’s great news for those who bet on the fight to end in a draw and who earned $2,000 on a $100 bet.

But here’s some good news: If you took my hypothetical parlay (Stevenson winning by decision, Navarrete knocking down Conceicao), you earned $150 on a $100 bet.