The Giants are perhaps the biggest surprise in the National League, riding the resurgences of veterans Buster Posey and Evan Longoria and leading the majors with a 2.17 rotation ERA. But in a division in which the Dodgers and Padres continue to command the most attention, another club also is emerging as a possible contender for a playoff berth.
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The Diamondbacks started the season 2-6. Staff ace Zac Gallen missed most of the first two weeks recovering from a hairline fracture in his right forearm. Madison Bumgarner in his first three starts had an 11.20 ERA. By April 17, the team had lost two of its best offensive players, center fielder Ketel Marte and first baseman Christian Walker; its backup center fielder, Tim Locastro; and three relievers it had signed as free agents, right-handers Tyler Clippard, Chris Devenski and Joakim Soria. The parade of troubles continued on Tuesday night, when right fielder Kole Calhoun injured his left hamstring stealing third base.
And yet, the Diamondbacks are on a 10-5 roll, getting contributions from a variety of lesser names – Taylor Widener in their rotation, Kevin Ginkel in their bullpen, Wyatt Mathisen, Josh Rojas, Josh VanMeter and Andrew Young off their bench. To fill the void in center, they acquired Nick Heath from the Royals and tried a former first-round pick, Pavin Smith, who had never played the position.
The injuries have forced manager Torey Lovullo into a daily scramble with his lineup. But in truth, he was planning to increase the use of his bench all along.
“I feel like I have begun to manage this team differently than in previous years,” said Lovullo, who is in his fifth season with the club. “I was very intrigued by what was happening in Oakland and Tampa Bay so I spent some time this off-season speaking with (Bob) Melvin and (Kevin) Cash. Their conclusion was that it takes 26 players to win a game and when I heard that a bell went off for me.
“As a result, I have a rotation of players, which would have taken place even if the injuries never occurred. Different daily lineups and pinch-hitting also plays into our new approach. On top of having really good players, we have some amazing coaches that really dug into how we could prep/practice at a very high intensity.”
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Lovullo’s strategic adjustment is reflected by his more aggressive pursuit of the platoon advantage; he is sitting or pinch-hitting for players such as shortstop Nick Ahmed and left fielder David Peralta, something he had rarely done before. In theory, the Diamondbacks could be even better after their injured players return, particularly in their bullpen, which has allowed the sixth-highest OPS in the majors. The way the bench players are performing, the potential loss of Calhoun on top of Marte and Walker might not be as damaging as it would have been otherwise. Smith, the seventh overall pick out of the University of Virginia in 2017, warrants a continued look – he currently ranks among the top eight percent in the majors in hard-hit percentage.
The Diamondbacks, while under no illusions they might catch the Dodgers, are currently percentage points ahead of the Padres for third place in the NL West. It’s not inconceivable both wild cards might come out of the West, considering the flaws being exposed in the NL East. It’s not inconceivable the Diamondbacks might compete for one of those berths, and are better than most of us believed.
Rockies roulette
Twins general manager Thad Levine, who worked in the Rockies’ front office from 1999 to 2004, would be an obvious candidate for the team’s GM opening if owner Dick Monfort went outside the organization to replace Jeff Bridich. So would Michael Hill, the Marlins’ former president of baseball operations, who also worked for the Rockies early in his career and is now MLB’s senior vice-president of on-field operations.
But if the appointment of Greg Feasel as club president is merely a way for Monfort to extend his influence, as The Athletic’s Nick Groke wrote, the Rockies might struggle to hire a rising or established executive from another club to head their baseball operations.
Oh, someone would take the job, only 30 of which exist in the sport. Angels owner Arte Moreno is perhaps the most hands-on owner in the game, yet had no shortage of candidates last offseason for his team’s GM vacancy, which ultimately went to Perry Minasian. But as the Mets and Phillies discovered in their respective searches, many top young execs are well-paid, mindful of family considerations and comfortable in their current jobs.
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The Rockies’ position is not necessarily as attractive as the Mets’ and Phillies’ were. No GM has built a sustained winner at Coors Field, and as one person familiar with the team’s operation said, “Dick Monfort thinks he’s Theo Epstein.” In addition, if Monfort’s history is any indication, he might prefer to hire internally. Bridich had been with the Rockies since 2004. Many in the front office are longtime employees.
One Rockies scout and a rival executive said assistant general manager of player personnel Jon Weil would be an excellent choice for the interim position. Weil began his career as an area scout with the Royals and worked in player development for the Rockies as the manager of minor-league operations before becoming the team’s pro scouting director. Unlike Bridich, he is said to be an excellent communicator. The rival executive described him as “intellectually and emotionally smart.”
Bill Schmidt, the Rockies’ vice president of scouting, also is viewed as a strong leader, but moving him into the GM’s role, even temporarily, would take his focus off the draft. The Rockies generally have done well in their selections of amateurs. Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and pitchers Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland all were first- or second-round picks.
Royals for real?
As the Royals drew praise last offseason for aggressively trying to improve, a consistent theme emerged in many of their acquisitions. Outfielder Andrew Benintendi, first baseman Carlos Santana and outfielder Michael A. Taylor all had played in a World Series, as had three previous Royals who were rejoining the club, outfielder Jarrod Dyson and relievers Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Another addition, left-hander Mike Minor, also had postseason experience.
So, while the Royals have their share of young players, general manager Dayton Moore says of the veterans, “It’s a group that knows how to win.” Catcher Sal Pérez and lefty Danny Duffy, two holdovers from the Royals’ Series teams in 2014 and ’15, also are part of the group. Manager Mike Matheny, who led the Cardinals to the playoffs in his first four seasons, including three straight appearances in the NLCS and one in the World Series, brings the intangible, too.
It’s impossible to know how much any of this contributed to the Royals’ 14-8 start, but other than their league-leading 22 stolen bases in 27 attempts, it’s not as if the team stands out statistically in any one area. As one opposing manager said, “KC is more solid than good,” adding the Royals likely will benefit from playing in the relatively weak AL Central.
Moore has two primary concerns – the infield defense without shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, who likely will be out 3 to 4 more weeks with a strained right oblique, and the team’s chase rate, which at 34.7 percent is the highest in the majors. The stability of the rotation is another question.
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For all the talk of promoting infielder Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals first might turn to their top pitching prospect, left-hander Daniel Lynch, who looked good in the second half of spring training and carried his momentum to the alternate site, where he pitched 5 1/3 innings in a game on Saturday, striking out five and allowing only one hit.
OAA vs. DRS
While perusing a variety of statistical sites last Friday morning, I stumbled onto an odd statistical discrepancy: The A’s defensively ranked fifth in Statcast’s Outs Above Average but last in Baseball Info Solution’s Defensive Runs Saved.
The season was not yet a month old, and most defensive metrics are reliable only in larger samples. Still, it seemed almost impossible that the A’s would rate so well by one measure and so poorly by another. So, I started looking for answers.
At the time, the A’s ranked poorly in DRS partly because they ranked 29th in groundballs on which they had recorded at least one out and 19th in the percentage of flyballs and liners to the outfield that were caught. Also, in outcomes Statcast does not register, both A’s catchers had gotten dinged one run for wild pitches/passed balls, and the team had allowed six stolen bases in seven attempts, perhaps accounting for another run.
Some of the differences in individual performance — third baseman Matt Chapman was +4 OAA and -2 DRS, first baseman Matt Olson was -1 OAA and -3 DRS – almost certainly were attributable to small samples. But the metrics also are calculated much differently.
According to MLB.com, “DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions data to chart where each ball is hit. Say, for instance, a center fielder sprints to make a nice catch on a fly ball. Then, say data from BIS tells us that similar fly balls get caught 60 percent of the time. That center fielder gains, essentially, 0.4 bonus points for difficulty.”
OAA, according to Tom Tango, senior data architect for MLB Advanced Media, uses camera-based tracking to determine the exact spot fielders are positioned on the field, as well as the ball’s trajectory. It also accounts down to the frame where the ball and fielders intersect, and the place where the batter-runner is at that moment.
Tango explained as much in this tweet:
Thanks to #MLBFieldVision https://t.co/gYNs19nARU we can break down play of Acuna v Didi at the various Action Points.
We can see Acuna is 13 feet from home when Didi fields the ball, then is already 59 feet from home when Didi releases the ball 1.8 seconds later. #Statcast 1/2 pic.twitter.com/sxqdkm3osg
— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) April 14, 2021
Through Tuesday, the evaluations of the A’s had changed only slightly: The team ranked 28th in DRS but still was fifth in OAA. The Diamondbacks and Nats were tied for first in DRS, but were 18th and 23rd, respectively, in OAA. The Rays were first in OAA and 10th in DRS.
Astros’ Emanuel and the latest on DHCMT
Astros rookie right-hander Kent Emanuel twice made news last week, first for his selection of the number “0” upon joining the club, then for throwing 8 2/3 innings of relief in a 16-2 victory over the Angels. It was the longest outing of the season by an Astros pitcher, and Emanuel was the first pitcher since John Montefusco in 1974 to pitch eight-plus innings in relief and get the win in his major-league debut.
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Emanuel, whom the Astros promoted after he completed an 80-game suspension for violating baseball’s joint drug policy, said he chose the number “0” for, “the number of games I deserved to be suspended.” He is one of a number of players who continue to dispute their positive tests for Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (DHCMT), better known as the anabolic steroid Oral Turinabol.
In a video Emanuel posted on his Instagram account on April 11, he revealed the league had rejected the Players Association’s proposal for a 100-picogram minimum threshold for the metabolite that would need to appear in a player’s urine for him to be suspended
Sources confirmed that the league rejected the proposal, which was similar to one adopted in late 2019 by the Ultimate Fighting Championship. While the league has set minimum thresholds for other substances, it simply does not buy the argument of the players who say they were suspended for DHCMT unfairly.
Technological and scientific advancements in recent years enabled anti-doping labs to identify more metabolites at lower levels than previously, and new testing methods were implemented at all World Anti-Doping Agency accredited laboratories, sources said. The league points to a decreased number of suspensions for DHCMT – four in 2019-20, down from 16 in 2016-18 – as evidence the system is working.
Emanuel, at least, is back pitching again. His sinker topped out at 91.4 mph in his debut, according to Statcast, but he allowed only two runs in 8 2/3 innings, both on solo homers, striking out five and walking none. Fangraphs’ Kevin Goldstein, formerly a member of the Astros’ front office, tweeted, “Very happy for Kent Emanuel. He’s been through a LOT, works very hard and knows how to pitch without having much velo.”
Adolis García: From DFA to SLG
Examining the transaction history of the Rangers’ Adolis García, one might be inclined to scream, “What, another outfielder the Cardinals let get away?” But while it’s true the Cardinals designated García for assignment on Dec. 18, 2019, to clear a 40-man roster spot for lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim, then traded him to the Rangers for cash, he is not in the same category as Randy Arozarena, Tommy Pham, Randall Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, all of whom succeeded with other clubs after leaving St. Louis.
The Rangers also ended up designating García, making the move on Feb. 10 to create room for righty Mike Foltynewicz. The move was a calculated gamble. The Rangers figured no team would claim García, a 28-year-old native of Cuba, because no club had asked him about him in any trade, and because his strikeout-to-walk ratios in North America had been poor.
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García had signed with the Cardinals in February 2017 for $2.5 million, but in 1,446 minor-league plate appearances had a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and 4.8 percent walk rate. In 24 major-league plate appearances during brief stints with the Cardinals in ’18 and Rangers in ’20, he had struck out 11 times and walked only once. The Rangers’ intuition proved correct; no team grabbed García on waivers. And then, his story took an improbable turn.
The Rangers promoted García on April 13 after first baseman Ronald Guzman suffered a season-ending injury to his right knee. García proceeded to give the Rangers a jolt, batting .269 with five homers and a .924 OPS in his first 55 plate appearances. Both the Cardinals and Rangers had known of his tools. The Rangers helped refine them by asking him to shrink his strike zone. As one Cardinals official put it, “Everyone in life just needs a chance.”
Nats waiting for Robles to mature
The Nationals are again built around their starting pitching, but at least one team member believes center fielder Víctor Robles must develop into a better player for the club to become a World Series contender.
Robles, 23, still makes youthful mistakes defensively and on the base paths. The latest example occurred on Sunday against the Mets, when he made the first out of the third inning at third base trying to stretch a double into a triple.
“I’m still learning,” Robles told reporters afterward.
Robles’ on-base percentage in 71 plate appearances is .324, only four points above his previous career mark. Hitting coach Kevin Long, however, said Robles has taken steps to address his two biggest issues offensively, widening his stance with two strikes, similar to Juan Soto, and taking a more direct stride against right-handers. He entered the season with a .777 career OPS against lefties, .708 against righties.
The Nats batted Robles leadoff in their first eight games before dropping him to the eighth and occasionally even the ninth spot. He would be more of an asset if he proved capable of returning to the top of the order, in front of Trea Turner, Soto and the team’s offseason additions, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber.
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Dodgers gonna Dodger
Yes, the Dodgers boast the league’s highest payroll, but they just keep coming up with inexpensive players. Outfielder D.J. Peters became the 12th member of the team’s 2016 draft class to reach the majors before going 0-for-5 and getting optioned back to the alternate site. Infielder Sheldon Neuse, acquired from the A’s on Feb. 12, made a more immediate impact, hitting two home runs in his first 14 plate appearances.
Neuse, 26, is a right-handed hitter and good defender, making him a solid fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Club officials also were intrigued by the other player they acquired from the A’s, right-hander Gus Varland, who underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019.
The A’s have yet to get much out of the deal. Lefty Adam Kolarek, who had a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings for the Dodgers last season, got off to a poor start and was optioned to the alternate site. Outfielder Cody Thomas, who led the Texas League with 23 homers but struck out 144 times in 2019, is the A’s No. 23 prospect, according to MLB.com.
Around the horn
• On the 20-to-80 scouting scale, 50 is average, 60 is plus, 70 is plus-plus and 80 is elite. Jacob deGrom in the view of one scout, has an 80 fastball, an 80 slider, a 70 changeup and 70 command.
Here’s the kicker: deGrom, in the scout’s estimation, also has a 65 curveball. He has yet to throw that pitch this season and threw only 30 last season, accounting for 2.6 percent of his repertoire.
• Speaking of deGrom, Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner didn’t necessarily expect his 15-strikeout, zero-walk, two-hit shutout against the Nationals last Friday night. But Hefner, who joined the club at the start of the 2020 season, thought deGrom’s warmup was the best he had seen.
Hefner said he could see a difference not only in the crispness of deGrom’s pitches in the bullpen, but also in his demeanor. DeGrom is a perfectionist who can get down on himself at times, especially in bullpen sessions when he is not in front of fans. Everything in his warmup on Friday night, however, was positive. DeGrom was locked in, the shapes of his pitches were excellent and he carried it into the game.
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• And finally, maybe this is the year the Tigers get the trade they want for left-hander Matt Boyd, who is earning $6.5 million this season and is eligible for arbitration one more time before becoming a free agent after the 2022 season.
Boyd, 30, has rebounded from a 6.71 ERA in 12 starts last season to produce a 1.82 ERA in his first five starts. His stuff has ticked up slightly and he has increased the use of his changeup, making his repertoire more well-rounded. The combination has made him less tentative: Boyd is throwing more strikes (46.5 percent, up from 37.6 percent last season) and far more first-pitch strikes (74.4 percent, up from 59.4 percent).
(Top photo of Zac Gallen: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
