Germany 1 – 2 Japan: Tactical change that won the game and Germany’s limp attack

The upsets kept coming in Qatar as Japan fought back from 1-0 down to emerge 2-1 victors over Germany.

An Ilkay Gundogan penalty gave Germany the lead in what looked to be a one-sided affair, however Japan’s formation change at half-time made all the difference. Ritsu Doan slammed home from close range to tie the game before Takuma Asano’s impressive finish gave Japan a victory for the ages.

Michael Cox, Phil Hay and Steve Madeley analyse the key talking points.

Germany defeated Costa Rica in the final match of Group E play, but were eliminated from the World Cup.

Being favourites counts for nothing at a World Cup

As Argentina discovered yesterday (and France feared for a short while at the start of their opening game), history, form and footballing pedigree count for nothing at a World Cup.

For much of the first half, Germany looked fairly comfortable; their superior quality and ‘big-league’ experience likely to win the day despite some moments of promise from Japan that were undermined by poor decision-making —  Daizen Maeda’s mistimed run for a disallowed goal being the most clear example.

Germany were ahead, Japan’s threat on the break appeared to have waned and a second German goal appeared to be on the way, with the routine opening victory it would have brought.

Fast forward half an hour and Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer was forward for a ‘Hail Mary’ corner as the champions of 2014 attempted to rescue a game which had, against the odds, been snatched away by Japan’s spirit and fine goals.

Being the favourite counts for nothing right now. Minnows are toppling giants. You can leave your reputation at the door.

Steve Madeley

The tactical change that won the game

Germany’s failure to kill the game

Another match that proved possession is not king. Germany dominated the ball to such an extent initially that with an hour gone, Japan had completed fewer than 30 passes in the German half.

But the fact remains that for all their control, Flick’s side were unable to put their opponents away. They fell short of their xG (expected goals) of 3.26 and they had huge difficulty in giving Kai Havertz, the number nine in Flick’s system, much to feed on. Havertz had three touches inside Japan’s box all game. As a consequence, he had no shots on goal (with the exception of an offside finish in circumstances where he ought to have beaten the flag).

It’s beautiful pic.twitter.com/aT04V6oBIq

— John Muller (@johnspacemuller) November 23, 2022

It would not have mattered had Germany converted some of the other good chances that dropped to them or made better decisions at points where Japan were badly stretched. Ilkay Gundogan in particular should have killed the game. But the question remains – is this a setup which is likely to get the most from Germany’s resources?

Perhaps the key moment aside from Gundogan’s strike against the post was the four efforts in the space of 10 seconds that Japan’s Shuichi Gonda repelled – three of them from Serge Gnabry. If anything was likely to spook Germany at 1-0, that was it.

Phil Hay

Raum plays like a winger

The surprise decision before kick-off, or perhaps the decision not everyone called, was Nico Schlotterbeck starting in the middle of Germany’s defence. Schlotterbeck is inexperienced internationally but there was more to Hansi Flick’s defensive structure than a simple choice between centre-backs.

Using Schlotterbeck allowed Flick to field 6ft 5in (196cm) Niklas Sule on the right side, nominally as a full-back but in reality as part of a back three when Germany were on the ball. Though the German formation on paper showed a back four, left-back David Raum spent much of the game running beyond the halfway line while Sule held a deeper line.

At one stage in the first half, Raum’s average position was higher than any German player bar Kai Havertz. Sule’s average position, meanwhile, had him behind halfway, not so far off the last man in front of Manuel Neuer.

The result was that in the early stages, Germany probed constantly down the left with Raum a good outlet to hit. Sule did not try to offer the same attacking presence on the right and had clearly been told not to.

And while Raum was a threat with the ball, he was also dangerous when Germany shifted right and Japan’s defensive shape swarmed to that side, leaving Raum unattended on the other side of the pitch. This was how the penalty for Germany’s goal was won as goalkeeper Gonda dived in rashly to try to dispossess the RB Leipzig player in a moment when Japan were exposed.

At the same time, however, Raum pushing so high made Germany vulnerable on his flank. For Japan’s equaliser, he was found wanting defensively, caught in no man’s land as Ritsu Doan appeared behind him and banged in an equaliser. And when the winner came, that side of Flick’s team failed completely. 

Phil Hay

Players protest

FIFA might have cowed various associations, including Germany’s, into backing out of wearing the ‘One Love’ armband, but the issue is not going away. Germany’s players saw to that with their hands-over-mouths gesture before kick-off, which had the effect of reigniting the conversation about human rights protests during ITV’s half-time analysis.

Roy Keane is not in the habit of pulling punches and the former Republic of Ireland international said what a lot of people are thinking: that in these circumstances, it would do various nations credit to put their money where their mouths were, defy FIFA and be damned.

Germany players pose with their hands covering their mouths in the team group picture (Photo: Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)

“It’s a gesture but I think they can do a lot more,” Keane said when Germany’s demonstration came up for discussion. “They say they’ve been silenced – by who? By who?

“Players… the most important people in football are the supporters and the players. Use their voice. Wear the armband. Stand up. Leadership is about action. Go and do it because this is going to drag on.” 

As it will and as it should.

Phil Hay

Gundogan’s resurgence

Ilkay Gundogan has come a long way in the past four years.

In the 2018 World Cup in Russia, the Manchester City midfielder made just one start, completed just 60 minutes and registered no goals and no assists as his nation failed to progress beyond the group stage.

And, having been pictured before the tournament with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, along with fellow players of dual heritage Mesut Ozil and Cenk Tosun, Gundogan was being criticised by sections of the German public, not to mention the then-chancellor, Angela Merkel.

Now, having scored eight goals in 42 internationals between 2011 and 2020, Gundogan has nine in 22 since the start of this calendar year with his opener today.

And he is his nation’s second-highest scorer under Hansi Flick with six to Timo Werner’s eight.

8>9 – İlkay Gündoğan has scored nine goals in 22 appearances for Germany since the start of 2021, after scoring eight goals in 42 games for the national side between 2011 and 2020. Pepped. pic.twitter.com/jQmu9VQjzc

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 23, 2022

Steve Madeley

(Top photo: Alex Grimm/Getty Images)