By Rustin Dodd, Chad Jennings and Stephen Nesbitt
The power rankings, like every major leaguer not named to an All-Star roster, will be on vacation next week. So, in this final rankings of the season’s first half, let’s retrieve those prognosticator caps we tossed away after Opening Day. It’s time for some second-half predictions.
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We want to be bold. But we also want to be correct. So let’s rewind to the start of the season, revisit our staff’s bold preseason predictions and see what worked (and what didn’t).
Some were bland but bang on. C. Trent Rosecrans said the Reds would not be “as bad as everyone else seems to think.” Sam Blum had the Angels finishing with a winning record. Eno Sarris, forecasting the Luis Arraez Effect, guessed the Marlins wouldn’t be a bottom-10 offense.
Others were bold and on target. Aaron Gleeman predicted the Twins, who ranked 19th in ERA last year, would have a top-five ERA. Jake Ciely said Josh Jung would win AL Rookie of the Year. Sarris speculated that Isaac Paredes would be a top-10 third baseman in the league.
Then there were the assorted others, spicy and mild, that are already hopelessly toast. Steve Berman took the over on the A’s over/under of 59.5 wins. Brendan Kuty said Aaron Judge would threaten 70 homers. Levi Weaver crowned Jacob deGrom with the Rangers’ first Cy Young. Katie Woo had those buyin’ Redbirds acquiring a true No. 1 starter at the deadline. And some massive bozo said CJ Abrams would steal 40 bags for the Nationals. Only 31 to go, buddy.
Read the latest edition of MLB Power Rankings.
1. Atlanta Braves
Record: 56-27
Last Power Ranking: 1
Bold prediction: Ronald Acuña Jr. will do what no one’s done since Rickey Henderson
This is an MVP prediction comparing a current player to one of the all-time greats, which should be incredibly bold, but Acuña’s having such a great season that it’s only kinda bold. You see, no player has won an MVP award while leading the league in OPS and stolen bases since Henderson in 1990. MVPs lead the league in OPS all the time, but in stolen bases? The last MVP to lead in steals alone was Ichiro Suzuki in 2001, but Ichiro wasn’t even top 10 in OPS that season. Mike Trout led the league in steals, finished second in OPS and probably should have won the MVP in 2012, but that was the year Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown. Acuña, though, is currently the NL leader in steals and OPS and WAR, all by a hefty margin. Honestly, it might be a bolder prediction to say he won’t win all three. — Chad Jennings
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2. Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 57-30
Last Power Ranking: 2
Bold prediction: At some point, the Rays will actually need hitting depth (and that’ll be just fine)
Do you realize the Rays have used only 14 position players this year? The Yankees have used almost that many outfielders! The Rays basically have given all of their at-bats to players they actually want at bat. José Siri missed a couple weeks in April with a hamstring strain and Brandon Lowe has missed the past month with a back injury. That’s the extent of their position-player injuries. Play-anywhere Vidal Bruján has bounced back and forth from Triple A as necessary, but the Rays have otherwise not had to tap into their position depth at all. They’ve cycled through a ton of pitchers — that’s nothing new for them — but at some point, they’re going to need to dig deeper into their minor-league hitting depth. Which, knowing the Rays, only means that we’re all about to be introduced to some super-utility man with speed and a perfectly decent bat who comes up with a huge hit down the stretch. It’s what the Rays do. — CJ
3. Texas Rangers
Record: 50-34
Last Power Ranking: 3
Bold prediction: The Rangers will catch the Rays for best record in the AL
The Rangers actually under-performed their run differential in the first half, meaning they could be neck-and-neck with Tampa Bay right now. The Rays just keep winning, as all great teams do, but the depth of talent and performance on the Rangers’ roster is formidable. Ten players put up at least 2 WAR in the season’s first half; Marcus Semien and Adolis García have been stars; and Corey Seager is playing like one of the best players in baseball. — Rustin Dodd
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 50-35
Last Power Ranking: 5
Bold prediction: Arizona acquires Shane Bieber at the trade deadline
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The Diamondbacks, who we’ve labeled as aggressive buyers, need another proven starter alongside Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Eduardo Rodriguez fits the bill, as a lefty quasi-rental, but bold-prediction birdies say he’s heading elsewhere — and his opt-out complicates trade talks anyway. Corbin Burnes fits, too, but is staying put. So Bieber it is. The Diamondbacks have the prospect capital to get a deal done, and they’d have him through the 2024 season. It hasn’t been vintage Bieber so far this season, but we’ve seen enough to know he’ll immediately strengthen the Diamondbacks’ rotation as they chase their first division title since 2011. (Bonus prediction that might be too bold: Corbin Carroll becomes the third player ever in the 30-50 club.) — Stephen Nesbitt
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 46-37
Last Power Ranking: 7
Bold prediction: Clayton Kershaw will get to 3,000 strikeouts this season
Getting to 3,000 this year was a long shot from the start since Kershaw needed 193 strikeouts — more than he’s had in any season since 2017. It’s even more of a stretch now that Kershaw is dealing with left shoulder inflammation. But I say he still gets there. At his current pace, Kershaw will need 80 more innings (about 13 starts) to get the 88 strikeouts he needs to reach 3,000. That’s doable even if Kershaw misses a start or two managing the shoulder issue. He’ll get the 3,000th strikeout in his last start of the season, at Coors Field in late September. — SN
6. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 49-33
Last Power Ranking: 4
Bold prediction: Eduardo Rodriguez makes his Orioles debut almost a decade after they traded him away
The Orioles have a dominant bullpen and a solid lineup (especially if Jordan Westburg can solidify their infield) but they could use some help in the rotation, and Rodriguez might be an interesting solution. The 30-year-old lefty is having a terrific season in Detroit, and he came up through the Orioles farm system before being traded for Andrew Miller back in 2014. He also has a solid history in the AL East, having won a ring with the Red Sox in 2018. Rodriguez is owed roughly $50 million the next three years but is expected to opt out this offseason, and the Orioles have the prospect capital to make a deal without completely draining their farm system. Rodriguez might not be an ace — though he’s pitched like one this season — but a bit of rotation stability might be what the Orioles need to keep this thing going. — CJ
7. San Francisco Giants
Record: 46-38
Last Power Ranking: 6
Bold prediction: Michael Conforto breaks the Giants’ 30-homer drought
Here’s a fact Giants fans are tired of hearing, yet the average baseball fan doesn’t know: The last San Francisco hitter with at least 30 homers in a season was Barry Lamar Bonds in 2004. Back then, George W. was in his first term. “Napoleon Dynamite” was a thing. The Sox broke the curse. And Bonds was hitting jimmy jacks every day. Now Conforto is here to put this trivia question to bed. He has 12 homers and hasn’t hit one since June 8. No matter. The next five road cities are Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, Detroit and Oakland. Get out the lumber. — SN
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8. Houston Astros
Record: 46-38
Last Power Ranking: 12
Bold prediction: The Astros make the playoffs for a seventh straight year
This hardly would have seemed bold in March, but the Astros are in a dogfight with the Rangers and the entire National League East. If you exclude the Red Sox from the discussion, that’s still six good teams for five playoff spots. (The AL Central has to get one.) The Astros won’t catch the Rangers, but they will play well enough to snag a wild-card spot. — RD
9. Miami Marlins
Record: 48-37
Last Power Ranking: 9
Bold prediction: Skip Schumaker will win Manager of the Year in his first year in the role
FanGraphs is giving the Marlins close to a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs, and if they do, their first-year skipper will be exactly the kind of guy who often gets voted Manager of the Year. Think about it. The Marlins play in the National League East, which was supposed to be impossibly top-heavy with the Mets, Braves and Phillies, yet the Marlins are currently in second place and leading the Wild Card. Sandy Alcantara hasn’t been great, Jean Segura’s been worse, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s been hurt. Yet the Marlins are winning with some mix-and-match in their lineup and some relatively anonymous relievers pitching well, all of which could be a credit to their skipper. It’s hard to quantify a Manager of the Year, but if the Marlins keep this up, Schumaker will be a popular pick. — CJ
10. Cincinnati Reds
Record: 45-39
Last Power Ranking: 8
Bold prediction: Alexis Díaz sets the Reds’ single-season saves record
Díaz, with 23 saves, is right on track to approach Jeff Brantley’s franchise record of 44 saves in 1996. That’s a number Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Danny Graves and pre-stache John Franco all failed to hit. Díaz is certainly capable of continuing to slam the door, but this upstart Reds team will need to keep racking up close wins in the second half.
If you’re worried this take isn’t bold enough, I offer three others I considered. 1) Jake Fraley will join the 30-30 club. 2) The Reds will finish 2-3-4-5 in NL Rookie of the Year voting (unless Patrick Bailey has something to say about it). 3) I don’t think the Reds will be as bad as everyone else seems to think. — SN
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11. New York Yankees
Record: 46-38
Last Power Ranking: 14
Bold prediction: Another high-cost trade for another high-risk outfielder
Am I missing a can’t-miss outfielder for the Yankees to target in trade talks? Most of the good ones seem to be playing for contenders, which might leave the Yankees needing to roll the dice a little bit if they’re going to improve around Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. The NL Central has some options that should be readily available, and despite the lesson of oft-injured Harrison Bader, let’s say the Yankees take a shot on either Tyler O’Neill’s health (from the Cardinals) or Cody Bellinger’s viability (from the Cubs). Maybe it’ll work out a little better this time. (Or maybe Judge will get healthy, put the team on his back for two months, and make it so that nothing else matters.) — CJ
12. Los Angeles Angels
Record: 45-41
Last Power Ranking: 13
Bold prediction: Shohei Ohtani will eclipse 13.0 WAR
Since 1900, only three players have compiled more than 13.0 WAR in a season, according to the Baseball-Reference version of the stat. Walter Johnson put up 16.5 WAR in 1913 and 14.3 in 1912; Babe Ruth put up 14.1 WAR in 1923; and Dwight Gooden accumulated 13.3 in 1985. Not only will Ohtani reach 13.0, but he will clinch what will be the greatest “walk” year of all time, surpassing Aaron Judge’s 62-homer campaign last year. — RD
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 44-39
Last Power Ranking: 10
Bold prediction: Rob Thomson’s team is going to be back in the NLCS
Might as well be a little bit reckless with a few of these, right? Baseball-Reference gives the Phillies a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs says it’s more like 50-50. But the Phillies had a really good month of June (18-8), and it stands to reason that the season’s best of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner is still to come. Dave Dombrowski can surely trade for a real third baseman, and if the Phillies can sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team, they’ll be able to lean on a four-man rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. Now that I think about it, this one feels like a lock. NLCS or bust in Philly this year! — CJ
14. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 45-40
Last Power Ranking: 11
Bold prediction: An entire season comes down to two weeks and one trend
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With more wild cards in an expanded playoff format, MLB introduced a more balanced schedule with fewer in-division matchups. But they might not have balanced it enough for a division as deep as the current AL East. Take the Blue Jays, for example. They’re 38-20 against the rest of baseball — on pace for the third-best record in the majors — but their overwhelming struggles against their own division (7-20 after being swept by the Red Sox this weekend) have them failing to maintain a playoff spot. And how does their schedule end? With their final 15 games coming against AL East opponents. So the bold prediction is that you’ll go into the final two weeks thinking the Blue Jays have a wild-card berth locked up, but the Jays themselves will know better. — CJ
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 45-39
Last Power Ranking: 15
Bold prediction: Jackson Chourio debuts for the Brewers this season
I already predicted the Brewers would not trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames; would get a rental bat like C.J. Cron; and would start talking about how getting Brandon Woodruff back from the injured list is their big deadline acquisition. But I forgot to mention why they didn’t go out and get another outfield bat: Chourio has landed. The 19-year-old top prospect opened the season as the youngest player in Double-A ball, and his time in Biloxi, Miss., has been a mixed bag. But Chourio has adjusted to the level and kept his strikeout rate in check, swinging a pretty hot bat since the end of May. Futures Game first, call-up later. Do the Brewers seem eager to rush Chourio to the majors? Maybe not. But it sure would be bold. — SN
16. Minnesota Twins
Record: 42-43
Last Power Ranking: 16
Bold prediction: Carlos Correa will be much better … in 2024
Correa’s career has been a strange mix of sterling All-Star-level campaigns littered with an occasional down year. He posted a .728 OPS in 2018; he was worse in a shortened 2020. But he’s always bounced back and continued to produce. Correa’s second year in Minnesota — and his first under his new contract — looks a lot like 2018. Next year will be better, but it may not help the Twins in the short term. — RD
17. Boston Red Sox
Record: 43-42
Last Power Ranking: 17
Bold prediction: After a wishy-washy 2022 trade deadline, the Red Sox will be firmly on the buy side this year
For about 11 months now, the Red Sox have been criticized for their half-hearted approach to the 2022 trade deadline, and now they’re right back in a similar spot, somewhere between obvious contention and hopeless mediocrity. This time, though, they’re going to go for it. Buoyed by an optimistic health outlook for Trevor Story and Chris Sale, the team will operate more like they did in 2021 (Kyle Schwarber, Hansel Robles) or even 2018 (Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler). For everyone’s sake, these Red Sox need to make the postseason, and they’re going to hold tight to any glimmer of hope. — CJ
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18. Seattle Mariners
Record: 40-42
Last Power Ranking: 19
Bold prediction: The Mariners’ playoff drought reaches one year
The Mariners haven’t been able to build off their breakthrough last year, frustrating their fans with a middling offense and underperforming their run differential. Julio Rodríguez has been a disappointment, but it sure seems like the club has been market corrected by the Rangers and Orioles, two teams that have added to the depth of competition in the AL. — RD
19. Chicago Cubs
Record: 38-44
Last Power Ranking: 18
Bold prediction: Cubs finish 1-2 in ERA title … but no Cy Young
Assuming Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman both qualify for the ERA title, they’ll finish first and second, respectively. The Cubs’ rotation, near the bottom of the league in strikeout rate, will be first in ERA. Books will be written about these men: how they did it the right way, with old-school pitching, and along the way they reminded us of the beauty of ground balls being pounded into the dirt. They will not be rewarded with hardware. They’ll miss the playoffs, then sit home fuming in November as Zac Gallen or Clayton Kershaw are handed the NL Cy Young award. — SN
T-20. San Diego Padres
Record: 38-46
Last Power Ranking: 20
Bold prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. turns in the most valuable season in Padres history
Forgive me for besmirching 1979 Dave Winfield (7.8 fWAR) and 1996 Ken Caminiti (7.5 fWAR), but, sooner or later, Tatis is going to blow by them. He had 7.2 fWAR last year — in 130 games! So maybe, in the long run, this looks like a tepid take. But, as it currently stands, there’s a ton of ground to make up for Tatis to do it this year. He was serving a suspension at the start of the season and now has 3 fWAR at the midpoint. But an offensive explosion is on tap in the second half. Think 30-30 season. Then think 35-35. Then think Gold Glove in right field. Now think about what feeds fWAR. Barrels, bombs and web gems, baby! — SN
GO DEEPER
Rosenthal: Fernando Tatis Jr.'s All-Star absence sends a message, plus other roster snubs
T-20. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 41-42
Last Power Ranking: 21
Bold prediction: The Guardians will win the AL Central
Bold? Perhaps not. But it feels bold to believe in any AL Central team right now. The Guardians’ pitching is right there with the Twins at the top of the division. They have the best manager in the division. They improved dramatically in the second half of last season. And they have José Ramírez, who could put up his fifth season of at least 6-plus WAR since 2017. — RD
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22. Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 39-44
Last Power Ranking: 23
Bold prediction: The Pirates extend Andrew McCutchen
The Pirates’ inconsistency this season hasn’t been McCutchen’s fault. In his reunion with the Pirates, he had a .830 OPS in March/April, .816 in May and .920 in June. He’s given them some speed, some pop, a near-.400 OBP, clubhouse-leader intangibles and “Furries” tweets, all for a $5 million salary. He doesn’t look ready to retire. Instead of trading McCutchen at the deadline, the Pirates will give him an extension to ensure his career ends in Pittsburgh. Let’s call it $12 million over two years. Even if McCutchen doesn’t remain this much of an offensive force at 37 and 38, the Pirates still get plenty of value from Cutch being Cutch. — SN
Furries
— Andrew McCutchen (@TheCUTCH22) June 29, 2023
23. New York Mets
Record: 38-46
Last Power Ranking: 22
Bold prediction: The game’s most aggressive franchise will go down without a fight
There’s a temptation to go crazy with this one, right? Steve Cohen fires literally everyone on Aug. 1! Billy Eppler trades the entire city of Binghamton for Shohei Ohtani! Max Scherzer initiates a hostile takeover, declares himself manager, starts pitching every four days, and plays himself in right field every Wednesday! It’s the Mets. At this point, we expect the absurd. And so, maybe the boldest prediction is that they do nothing particularly bold in the second half. They choose not to sell (or maybe they trade David Robertson, but that’s it), don’t feel enough conviction to buy, and simply hope Scherzer and Justin Verlander do something immortal down the stretch to get them into the playoffs. This season is already a massive disappointment. What could be more disappointing — and fitting — than finishing it without so much as a whimper? — CJ
24. Detroit Tigers
Record: 37-46
Last Power Ranking: 25
Bold prediction: Miguel Cabrera will finish his career ranked 18th on the all-time hits list
He will surpass Tony Gwynn, Robin Yount, Paul Waner and George Brett and finish with 3,156 hits, or 10 behind Adrián Beltré. — RD
25. Chicago White Sox
Record: 37-49
Last Power Ranking: 24
Bold prediction: The White Sox will spend at least one day in first place in the second half before fading
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Like every other team in the weak AL Central, the White Sox haven’t hit. They also had .500 or better records in May and June after going 7-20 in April. One hot-ish month in July and August and they’ll be right in the thick of the division race. They will have at least one (emphasis on –ish) once Tim Anderson stops being one of the worst hitters in the American League. — RD
26. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 35-48
Last Power Ranking: 26
Bold prediction: The Cardinals trade Paul Goldschmidt for everything A.J. Preller has left
It makes too much sense. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak has said he’s not looking to blow up this team. But he also knows the score — the Cards would need to go 46-33 the rest of the way just to reach .500 — and he knows how much turnover is ahead for the Cardinals. Their quickest path from the bottom of the NL Central today to the top next season might be to move their star first baseman. Goldschmidt is signed through next year, his age-36 season. By acting now, the Cardinals would not risk missing the window to trade him while he’s still a great hitter. Even if it’s not to Preller and the Padres, just imagine what these contenders would part with to plug in Goldschmidt at first base. Orioles? Brewers? Marlins? Astros? Phillies? Goldschmidt, who has a no-trade clause, has never played in a World Series. Let this be his year. Just not in St. Louis. — SN
27. Washington Nationals
Record: 34-49
Last Power Ranking: 27
Bold prediction: Jeimer Candelario is going to become one of the best free-agent signings of this past offseason
Coming off a down year in 2022, the veteran Candelario signed a one-year, $5-million deal this offseason, and because of him, the last-place Nationals are basically tied for the second-best third-base WAR in the big leagues. But what good is that production on such a bad team? The trade deadline, of course! Among the teams that currently rank in the bottom third of the big leagues in third-base WAR, according to Baseball-Reference, are the Marlins, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, and Angels. In the bottom half are the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Reds. That’s a big group of postseason contenders who could be in the market for some short-term help at the hot corner, making Candelario one heckuva trade chip to dangle these next few weeks. — CJ
28. Colorado Rockies
Record: 33-53
Last Power Ranking: 28
Bold prediction: Ryan McMahon receives a down-ballot MVP vote
… playing for the Marlins. McMahon heads to Miami at the deadline as the Marlins, desperate for production at third base, bring in a guy capable of crushing 30 homers and playing plus defense. The move works wonders for the Marlins. The Rockies, understanding the optics of trading away a sweet-swinging third baseman who is under contract for many years to come, offer fans an olive branch by solving their logjam of past and present closers currently sharing time in the Colorado bullpen: contract extensions for all. McMahon finishes with 3.4 fWAR and a 31 percent strikeout rate. He is who he is as a hitter. A Colorado writer, in a show of respect (to the player) and stupefaction (to the hometown team), puts McMahon 10th on their MVP ballot. — SN
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29. Kansas City Royals
Record: 25-59
Last Power Ranking: 29
Bold prediction: The Royals will break their franchise record for losses by exactly two losses
OK, it’s not that bold to say they will break it. The club went 23-58 in its first 81 games, meaning it has to go 34-47 over its last 81 games just to avoid tying the 2005 Royals, who went 56-106. But how about an exact record? The Royals will go 31-50 in the second half as their batting improves in clutch situations. Amazingly, they hit just .207 as a team in “late and close” situations during their first 81 games. (Baseball-Reference defines “late and close” as the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.) — RD
30. Oakland Athletics
Record: 23-63
Last Power Ranking: 30
Bold prediction: The A’s will become the first club with a team ERA above 6.00 since the 1999 Rockies
The numbers are staggering. All of them. They could join the 1962 Mets with 120 losses. They are the worst-hitting team in the league. You would need to add up the Wins Above Replacement of the best seven or eight players on the roster to equal the WAR total of Shohei Ohtani. — RD
(Top photo: Kyle Rivas / Getty Images)