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With Ohtani now officially with the Dodgers and the contract details becoming clear, it’s time to turn our attention to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Meanwhile, the Giants signed an outfielder, and Tyler Glasnow could be on the move. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!
All eyes on Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Well, now that we’ve gotten the big free-agent signing out of the way, it’s time to turn our sights to the next big one. Most baseball fans didn’t know much about Yoshinobu Yamamoto until his World Baseball Classic performances, in which he struck out 12 hitters in 7 1/3 innings.
Now? Now he’s the guy who’s probably going to make more money than any remaining free agent on the market.
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As Ken writes, he has choices. It seems increasingly likely that, at just 25 years of age, he’ll sign a deal somewhere in the realm of 10 years and $300 million.
He’s being called the Yankees’ No. 1 priority. The Dodgers got some help from their newest superstar unicorn in trying to woo him to come to Los Angeles. The Blue Jays — recently spurned by that same unicorn — could spend some of that Ohtani money on Yamamoto, and the Red Sox are making their best pitch. Meanwhile, the Giants could use a “rotation of doom,” and are we really going to rule out Steve Cohen and the Mets?
So … why so much interest? Well, aside from posting a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP in seven seasons in Japan, there’s the fact that — as Eno Sarris points out in this article — teams have much better pitch data than they did in the years of, say, Daisuke Matsuzaka. They have a better idea of what they’re getting, and with more confidence comes a greater willingness to spend. Sarris broke down each of Yamamoto’s pitches and wrote that the splitter might be the best in baseball.
Ken’s Notebook: Dodgers give Ohtani control
Another day, another Shohei Ohtani contract stunner.
The first shock was Ohtani’s $700 million guarantee. The second was the extent of his deferrals, $68 million annually over the course of his 10-year deal. The third, reported by The Athletic and other outlets Wednesday, was a form of opt-out no other player is believed to have ever received.
Ohtani, according to The Associated Press, can escape his contract if Mark Walter no longer is the Dodgers’ controlling owner or if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman no longer is with the team. The departure of either would enable Ohtani to opt out at the end of the season in which the change occurs.
As long as Ohtani remains a viable player for the duration of his contract, Friedman, 47, seemingly would enjoy 10 years of job security, a lifetime for a head of baseball operations. But Friedman has run either the Rays or Dodgers for the past 18 seasons, and might not want to remain in the job another decade. Only the Yankees’ Brian Cashman, Cardinals’ John Mozeliak and Nationals’ Mike Rizzo have held such positions longer.
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Walter, 63, could depart if the ownership group he chairs, Guggenheim Baseball Management, sells the club. Such an outcome is not known to be on the horizon, but theoretically, the uncertainty surrounding regional sports networks could alter Guggenheim’s perspective, or that of any other club.
Yet, even if the Dodgers’ RSN collapses, a direct-to-consumer package built around Ohtani and the team’s other stars almost certainly would be lucrative in its own right. And Ohtani will help generate other revenue as well.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Ohtani Opt-Out is the control the Dodgers were willing to give him, which cannot be quantified. The opt-out recalls a similar clause Joe Maddon had as manager of the Rays. Maddon’s clause, too, allowed him to escape if Friedman, his boss at the time, departed. When Friedman left for the Dodgers in October 2014, Maddon exercised the clause and bolted for the Cubs.
Ohtani’s stunning deal, among other things, gives him the ability to make the same type of call.
More Ohtani: Check out our live blog for full coverage of his introductory news conference.
Giants pivot to Jung Hoo Lee
While the Giants were reeling from being jilted by Shohei Ohtani (despite presenting him with the same $700 million contract) and waiting to find out if they’ll be the destination for Yamamoto, they pivoted to the offense, signing Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal worth $113 million.
In Lee, the Giants get an outfielder who rarely swings and misses at fastballs, hits fewer groundballs than anyone else in the KBO, and, well … doesn’t have a lot of power. Grant Brisbee has the write-up on Lee here.
As Keith Law notes, Lee addresses one major issue with the Giants — last year, their .312 OBP was worse than every team in the National League not called the Rockies. In seven years in Korea, Lee got on base at a .407 clip, walking more often than he struck out in his last five seasons.
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Of course, it’s not as simple as saying the Giants got a .400 OBP guy. It’s notoriously tricky to translate stats from KBO to MLB. Dae-Ho Lee got on base at a .385 clip in Korea, but only .312 in 104 MLB games. Ha-Seong Kim dipped from .373 in seven KBO seasons to .325 in three years stateside.
But neither of those guys had the bat-to-ball skills of Lee, who joins Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto in the San Francisco outfield. Do the Giants still have holes? Oh, absolutely. But they certainly addressed a need.
Are the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow?
The trade hasn’t been finalized yet, but yesterday morning, reports began to surface that the Dodgers and Rays were working to send SP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot to Los Angeles, with SP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny Deluca going back to Tampa.
And then, of course, Randy Arozarena had to add some gasoline to the fire by posting an Instagram photo of himself with Shohei Ohtani at the World Baseball Classic. So yeah, we’re wading into NBA offseason territory here.
Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reported that other teams are in discussions with the Rays on Glasnow. So whether it’s the Dodgers or someone else, it appears likely that Glasnow — who has one year and $25 million remaining on his contract — could be dealt soon.
Glasnow is one of a few starting pitchers rumored to be on the trade block this winter (Dylan Cease is another). He went 10-7 in 21 starts last year, posting a 3.53 ERA and striking out 162 and walking 37 in 120 innings. If he does land with the Dodgers, it would be a huge step toward solidifying a rotation that was banged up last year. They’re still waiting for Dustin May (mid-season, at earliest), Clayton Kershaw (mid-season, if he even re-signs with the Dodgers), and Tony Gonsolin and Ohtani (2025) to return.
Of those who are healthy, Walker Buehler is returning from his second Tommy John surgery, and Pepiot, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan are all relatively inexperienced, having made a combined 43 big-league starts.
Glasnow makes a lot of sense. But hey, as we discussed in the Yamamoto section, the Dodgers are far from the only team looking for starting pitching.
Handshakes and High Fives
Look, I get it. You might be tired of Ohtani content. But you gotta read this story by Stephen Nesbitt, who talked to Robert Herjavec — the owner and passenger of N616RH, the flight that everyone thought was taking Shohei Ohtani from Los Angeles to Toronto.
(And if you’re not tired of Ohtani content, here’s The Roundtable, talking about the ripple effects on other teams, and here’s a story on the trade the Dodgers made to make room on the 40-man roster for Ohtani and Joe Kelly.)
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So it’s your first year on the big stage. What do you do? Pick the brains of the guys who have been there before, says Zack Meisel. Big-league managers: they’re just like us!
Jim Bowden predicts where the top remaining free agents will sign and for how much.
It’s not quite Edwin Díaz, but it’s the second year in a row that the Mets have lost a player to an injury sustained while he was playing elsewhere. This time, it’s infield prospect Ronny Mauricio, who tore his ACL playing winter ball.
Scott Boras says the free-agent market is “status quo” in the wake of the Ohtani signing.
The Royals keep making sneaky moves — this time, signing pitcher Seth Lugo.
And lastly, MLB has announced a “Spring Breakout” game, featuring top prospects facing off in spring training. There’s no word on whether this is meant to replace the All-Star Futures Game, but MLB putting the draft during the All-Star break certainly has taken some of the attention off that showcase in recent years.
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(Top photo: The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images)