By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma
The latest edition of this annual exercise arrives on a dour note. For the past five seasons, we have been canvassing executives, scouts and analysts to identify the best starting pitchers in baseball, the aces. The curriculum has shifted in recent years as teams ask less of starters in an attempt to optimize, but certain standards remain. An ace showed up in October after guiding his team through September. An ace logged plenty of innings. An ace could be depended upon to repeat his performance the next year.
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The designation was predicated on two main concepts: Ability and durability. Which is why this year’s edition conjures up disappointment. We sent out our surveys in January and February. By the time they were returned in March, a number of significant pitchers were already injured, including Gerrit Cole, the only pitcher who received a vote as an ace from all 20 members of our chorus.
Yes, we are giving away the ending up front this year: Cole was the only unanimous ace. That was before the public knew he was experiencing inflammation in his right elbow. The Yankees have shut him down for about a month. He was the highest profile pitcher to get dinged up this spring, but hardly the only one. Injuries are an unfortunate rite of early-season passage, but this year has been particularly brutal.
The lions of the last generation — Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — are all on the mend. Kershaw is recovering from shoulder surgery. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December. Verlander experienced some crankiness in his shoulder when Houston Astros camp opened; he will begin the season on the injured list. Shohei Ohtani won’t make his pitching debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers until next year as he makes his way back from his second Tommy John surgery.
Joining Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander on the mend is a procession of younger arms. Baltimore Orioles starter Kyle Bradish sprained his ulnar collateral ligament. New York Mets starter Kodai Senga has a shoulder injury. St. Louis Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (hamstring) and Toronto Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman (shoulder fatigue) won’t be available for Opening Day. Eury Pérez, the towering Miami Marlins pitcher touted by many of our respondents as an ace in the future, is dealing with elbow soreness.
Keep all those dings and dents, some more serious than others, in mind as you peruse the subsequent list. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 70 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement in 2023, plus 20 others we thought merited consideration.
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For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an “applicant.”
The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants: The men who might one day call themselves aces.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the scouting world, “just a guy.”
With that in mind, let’s try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are the aces in baseball?
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Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s
50. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 49.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 26
2023 stats: 9-7, 3.66 ERA, 159 2/3 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.68 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The Marlins have done an excellent job bringing pitching talent to the major leagues in recent years. The team has not done as excellent a job of keeping them healthy, as Sixto Sánchez, Trevor Rogers and Sandy Alcantara can attest. Garrett made 30 starts in 2023 and can, as one scout put it, “provide volume at a competent level.”
49. Bailey Ober, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Rating: 50
Age: 28
2023 stats: 8-6, 3.43 ERA, 144 1/3 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.96 FIP
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2023 rating: Not ranked.
According to Baseball Savant, Ober rated in the 98th percentile for the extension of his delivery last season. Which makes sense, given he stands 6-foot-9. His height adds life to his fastball, which sits at a pedestrian 92 mph but still gives hitters trouble.
48. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 50.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 30
2023 stats (in Nippon Professional Baseball): 7-5, 2.66 ERA, 159 IP, 10.6 K/9
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The Cubs were thrilled to sign Imanaga to a four-year, $53 million deal; the initial speculation on his free agency pegged his value closer to nine figures. Our respondents were intrigued by the strikeouts Imanaga produced in Japan, but wary about how he would handle the usual adjustments to the big-league schedule.
47 (tie). Chris Bassitt, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 53
Age: 35
2023 stats: 16-8, 3.60 ERA, 200 IP, 8.4 K/9, 4.28 FIP
2023 rating: 54
Bassitt just keeps doing what he does. He has notched a career high in innings in each of the past three seasons. He has been quite dependable for the A’s, Mets and now the Blue Jays, meriting Cy Young Award votes in three of the past four years. One executive described him as a “dependable innings eater that’s probably undervalued.”
47 (tie). Marcus Stroman, RHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 53
Age: 32
2023 stats: 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 136 2/3 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.58 FIP
2023 rating: 46
A rib cage injury derailed Stroman last summer. Otherwise he might have earned more than the two-year, $37 million contract he signed with the Yankees during the offseason. The team will need him to generate plenty of groundballs this summer, especially with Cole on the mend and the jury out on Carlos Rodón.
45. Merrill Kelly, RHIP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 55
Age: 35
2023 stats: 12-8, 3.29 ERA, 177 2/3 IP, 9.5 K/9, 3.85 FIP
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2023 rating: Not ranked.
Any struggling American pitcher who heads to Korea or Japan in search of rebirth can point to Kelly as a signpost. Kelly has proven to be one of the best acquisitions ever made by general manager Mike Hazen. An excellent four-start performance in last season’s surprising World Series run only further bolstered Kelly’s resume.
44. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 56
Age: 30
2023 stats: 13-9, 3.30 ERA, 152 2/3 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.66 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The Diamondbacks surely hope their $80 million investment in Rodriguez goes better than their recent $85 million deal with Madison Bumgarner. Rodriguez put together his best season in 2023 with the Tigers. One scout projected him as a No. 3 starter, but noted that “moving from the confines of Detroit to the NL West isn’t going to be easy.”
43. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 58
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 28
2023 stats: 6-6, 3.80 ERA, 128 IP, 7.5 K/9, 3.87 FIP
2023 rating: 79.5
Injuries to the elbow and shoulder have sent Bieber plummeting on this list. He received 97 points in 2021 and 92 in 2022, still viewed as a No. 1 starter by the industry. The past two seasons, in which his strikeout rate has severely dipped, have placed him in a more nebulous place. “This went backwards pretty quickly,” one scout said. “The plan of attack has become predictable.” If Bieber can rebound, though, one executive predicted there to be a robust market for his services at the trade deadline.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s
42 (tie). Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 60
Age: 34
2023 stats: 6-5, 4.30 ERA, 102 2/3 IP, 11 K/9, 3.80 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Sale has not put together an elite season since 2018, with his career sidetracked by Tommy John surgery and a series of other ailments. But he is still Chris Sale, the gangly lefty who terrorized the American League for nearly a decade. His 20 starts with Boston in 2023 were enough to convince Atlanta to give up top prospect Vaughn Grissom in a trade and promptly sign Sale to a two-year, $38 million extension.
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42 (tie). Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 60
Ace votes: 1
Age: 36
2023 stats: 13-5, 2.46 ERA, 131 2/3 IP, 9.4 K/9, 4.03 FIP
2023 rating: 77.5
Among pitchers who logged 100 innings in 2023, only Blake Snell produced a lower ERA than Kershaw, the 10-time All Star and three-time Cy Young Award winner. And Kershaw posted those results with a severely compromised left shoulder that required offseason surgery. The operation will keep him on the shelf until July, at the earliest. “Assuming he comes back healthy, maybe this will be the year he isn’t tired in the postseason,” one scout said. Added another scout, “When he’s healthy, he’s very good.’
40. Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 60.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 25
2023 stats: 10-4, 2.98 ERA, 142 IP, 8.9 K/9, 3.52 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
“I’d buy Bibee stock,” one executive said. The 2021 fifth-round pick became the latest arm to pop off Cleveland’s conveyor belt last year. His command is not pristine, so his chances for leveling up on this list will be determined by his ability to miss more bats in the future.
39. José Berríos, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 61
Age: 29
2023 stats: 11-12, 3.65 ERA, 189 2/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.99 FIP
2023 rating: 48
Berríos rebounded from a wretched 2022 to produce a campaign that looked a lot like the seasons he had completed since his debut in 2017. He was good enough to emerge from Toronto’s deep rotation to start Game 2 of a playoff series. His outing was going quite well, too, until … never mind.
38. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rating: 61.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 27
2023 stats: 13-9, 4.21 ERA, 194 1/3 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.80 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The recent recipient of a $77 million extension demonstrated progress with his fastball last season as he made his first All-Star team. “He’s well on his way,” one scout said.
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37. Zach Eflin, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 62
Age: 29
2023 stats: 16-8, 3.50 ERA, 177 2/3 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.01 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Eflin made Tampa Bay’s three-year, $40 million investment in him look like a bargain last season. He logged six innings or more in 19 of his 31 starts — for a bullpen-centric club like the Rays, that demonstrates a level of faith from the coaching staff. Some of our respondents were still concerned about Eflin’s ability to hold up during another full season. But Tampa Bay is unlikely to ask him to do much more than he did in 2024.
36. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Rating: 62.5
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 24
2023 stats: 4-7, 4.82 ERA, 112 IP, 12.2 K/9, 4.25 FIP
2023 rating: 57.5
The industry remains uncertain on how to evaluate Greene, the No. 2 overall pick in 2017. He is still quite young. His arsenal is still explosive. “He’s everyone’s pick to be a future ace, right?” one scout said. He was trending toward that terrain before injuring his hip last summer. Yet he is also still prone to walks and hard contact. “Huge stuff,” another scout said. “But it just hasn’t consistently played that way.”
35 (tie). Yu Darvish, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 64
Ace votes: 1
Age: 37
2023 stats: 8-10, 4.56 ERA, 136 1/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 4.03 FIP
2023 rating: 77
Darvish was shut down for the final month of 2023 after doctors discovered a bone spur in his surgically-repaired right elbow. He tends to bounce back from down seasons, which the Padres are counting on as they attempt to return to the postseason. “He’s in the decline phase,” one scout said. “Which is fine — he’s almost 38. Good career.”
35 (tie). Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 64
Ace votes: 1
Age: 34
2023 stats: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.88 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The two-year, $34 million deal Eovaldi signed heading into 2023 looked like a bargain even before the Rangers reached the postseason. Once there, Eovaldi burnished his October resume with a 2.95 ERA in six starts. His six scoreless innings in the World Series clincher offered a masterclass in game management. Eovaldi has the arsenal of a No. 3 and the results of a No. 3, one scout explained, while putting forth “No. 1 makeup and No. 1 competitiveness.” Or, as another evaluator put it, “he could post a 6.00 ERA in the regular season, I’m still sending him out there come playoff time.”
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35 (tie). Sonny Gray, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Rating: 64
Age: 34
2023 stats: 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 9 K/9, 2.83 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Gray parlayed a strong platform season into a three-year, $75 million deal with St. Louis. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in the American League Cy Young Award voting. Since 2019, Gray has produced 16.3 wins above replacement, the 10th most among pitchers, according to FanGraphs. When it comes to pitching in recent years, the Cardinals have been behind the times. The acquisition of Gray represented a step toward modernity. Now they just need him to stay healthy.
35 (tie). Jordan Montgomery, LHP, unsigned
Rating: 64
Age: 31
2023 stats: 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 188 2/3 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.56 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
A common question among scouts, executives and even players this spring: “Why hasn’t Montgomery signed yet?” Montgomery is the last top-tier starter still on the market. The simplest explanation is the disparity between Montgomery’s track record and his desire for compensation. As one executive put it: “The reason he hasn’t signed is most of us realize he’s a No. 3. But he’s trying to get paid like a No. 2.” Montgomery has made 30 starts or more in each season since the pandemic. He was excellent for most of the 2023 postseason. He is a dependable arm. Eventually, some team will be glad to have signed him.
35 (tie). Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 64
Age: 31
2023 stats: 10-3, 3.05 ERA, 97 1/3 IP, 9 K/9, 3.52 FIP
2023 rating: 68
Musgrove started the season on the injured list after dropping a kettlebell on his foot. He ended it on the injured list after experiencing inflammation in his right shoulder capsule. Three significant pitchers — Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff and Kyle Wright — underwent surgery to repair capsule tears last fall. Musgrove would not want to become the fourth.
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30 (tie). Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 66
Age: 27
2023 stats: 12-10, 3.86 ERA, 165 2/3 IP, 11.4 K/9, 3.85 FIP
2023 rating: 50
Peralta’s 2021 All-Star campaign might be an outlier for him. But he picked up some fastball velocity last season, while his slider and curveball remain dangerous. He will need to give up fewer home runs to move up on this list. “He has big swing-and-miss stuff, but he has trouble putting it together with that command,” one scout said.
30 (tie). Justin Steele, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 66
Age: 28
2023 stats: 16-5, 3.05 ERA, 173 1/3 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.02 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Steele put together another strong season in 2023, cutting down his walk rate en route to a third-place finish in the National League Cy Young Award voting. He essentially throws two pitches — a 92 mph fastball and an 83 mph slider, which aided his rise but may limit his ceiling. “He was a No. 2 last year, probably,” one scout said. “I question how long the two-pitch approach holds up as a No. 2.” Another scout added, “Feels like 2023 was his peak, but a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm.”
28 (tie). Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 68
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 26
2023 stats: 10-10, 3.58 ERA, 178 2/3 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.55 FIP
2023 rating: 56
Flipping outfielder Starling Marte for Luzardo in 2021 may have been the best move of Kim Ng’s abbreviated tenure as Marlins general manager. Luzardo had a ton of prospect hype with Oakland — Baseball America rated him the game’s No. 7 prospect in 2019 and No. 9 in 2020 — so his emergence as a pitcher closer to a No. 3 than a No. 1 might classify as a disappointment. But not if you understand how challenging it is to ferry pitchers from the minors to the majors. So much can go wrong. Luzardo appears to be just hitting his stride.
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28 (tie). Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 68
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 24
2023 stats: 11-4, 3.76 ERA, 124 1/3 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.51 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
There were times when Miller, a first-round pick and yet another Louisville alum in the team’s player-development pipeline, pitched like an ace last year. And there were times, like Game 2 of the National League Division Series against Arizona, when Miller could not finish the second inning. His fastball sat at 99 mph last season, which complemented his power changeup, slider and curveball. He throws his breaking balls with elevated velocity, and all of them miss bats.
“It’s certainly No. 1 stuff,” one executive said. “Just needs to harness it.”
That is the challenge for most youthful pitchers. Miller will get a chance to demonstrate his mettle for a team with sky-high expectations in 2024.
28 (tie). Max Scherzer, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 68
Ace votes: 1
Age: 39
2023 stats: 13-6, 3.77 ERA, 152 2/3 IP, 10.3 K/9, 4.32 FIP
2023 rating: 95.5
Scherzer could never get healthy in 2023. His body felt cranky early in the season with the Mets. After the Rangers acquired him at the trade deadline, he dealt with a back strain. He made it back for the postseason but had to exit a World Series game because of back pain. And now he’s recovering from surgery. He’s going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he retires.
25. Kyle Bradish, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Rating: 69
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 27
2023 stats: 12-7, 2.83 ERA, 168 2/3 IP, 9 K/9, 3.27 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Bradish took a significant step forward in 2023, cutting down his walks and upping his strikeout rate while establishing himself atop the Orioles rotation. Bradish “might be the most underrated guy in baseball right now,” one scout said. Which made his injury this spring all the more dispiriting. He has resumed his throwing program and looks like he can avoid surgery. But UCL injuries are always worrisome.
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24. Kodai Senga, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 69.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 31
2023 stats: 12-7, 2.98 ERA, 166 1/3 IP, 10.9 K/9, 3.63 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
We received an interesting mix of responses regarding Senga, who was tremendous in his rookie season in Queens. His “ghost fork” splitter flummoxed hitters. One scout expressed curiosity, given Senga’s relatively modest reputation in Nippon Professional Baseball (at least compared to contemporaries like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki). “Still surprised with what he did last year,” the evaluator said. “Think hitters will adjust after seeing him.” Another evaluator suggested Senga would only improve as he became more comfortable with Major League Baseball. “Don’t think we’ve seen the best MLB version of him yet,” the scout said.
Yet Senga is still shut down as he deals with a capsule strain. He will not return until May — if not later. “Health concerns surrounded him before he signed,” a third scout said. “We’ll see how much he is on the field.”
23 (tie). Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Rating: 71
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 24
2023 stats: 7-4, 4.35 ERA, 122 IP, 9.5 K/9, 3.93 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Rodriguez demonstrated enough during his debut last season to hearten the evaluators who boosted him during his minor-league career. Several pegged him as a future No. 1. His development will be crucial for Baltimore this season, especially with Bradish on the shelf at the outset. One scout suggested Rodriguez would benefit from junking his slider, which is less impressive than his changeup and curveball.
23 (tie). Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 72.5
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 28
2023 stats: 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 177 IP, 10.9 K/9, 3.72 FIP
2023 rating: 78.5
The Padres let Blake Snell walk in free agency. To replace him, general manager AJ Preller traded for a right-handed photocopy, albeit with a lower ceiling. One executive pegged Cease as “the toughest guy to grade. He can be a No. 1 or a No. 5 depending on the day.”
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Snell piled up strikeouts and walks, but avoided hard contact. Cease often misses bats and he misses the strike zone. He was less successful at avoiding barrels last season, which explained his slide after a breakout campaign in 2022. There were “some warning signs under the hood,” one scout said. “The stuff was less nasty.” His underlying metrics suggest he will be better in 2024, and some within the industry believe he will benefit from leaving Chicago.
23 (tie). Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Rating: 72.5
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 5
Age: 27
2023 stats: 7-3, 2.80 ERA, 80 1/3 IP, 11.4 K/9, 2.00 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
Skubal was a revelation for the Tigers in the second half. He wowed scouts again this spring. Detroit has had trouble delivering top-shelf pitching prospects to the majors in recent years, but the emergence of Skubal and Matt Manning in 2023 should give the franchise some hope.
20. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 74
Age: 30
2023 stats: 12-11, 3.45 ERA, 198 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.50 FIP
2023 rating: 74
One evaluator described Valdez as a “modern unicorn” for his ability to put up 200 or so innings of high quality. And that feat is increasingly rare. Valdez has completed five games in the past two seasons, more than any pitcher besides Sandy Alcantara. Valdez bulled his way through some rough patches in 2023 to emerge with another excellent season.
19 (tie). Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 75
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 26
2023 stats: 13-7, 3.73 ERA, 190 2/3 IP, 8.9 K/9, 3.85 FIP
2023 rating: 63
Gilbert is the elder member of Seattle’s much-heralded homegrown pitching duo; it will be interesting to see if Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo can crack this list in 2025. If Gilbert can cut down on the home runs, he’ll rocket up these rankings. One scout described him as “the most under-appreciated guy on the list.” Another evaluator went further, suggesting he would trade at least one of his children for the opportunity for his team to employ Gilbert. That’s high praise.
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19 (tie). Justin Verlander, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 75
Ace votes: 4
Age: 41
2023 stats: 13-8, 3.22 ERA, 162 1/3 IP, 8.0 K/9, 3.85 FIP
2023 rating: 100
Verlander was the only unanimous ace in last year’s poll. But he dealt with some hiccups. Before the season began, he tweaked a muscle in his back. He missed all of April. He needed a couple months to find his bearings with the Mets. You could describe these hiccups as typical of a pitcher at 40. Except precious few pitchers are still playing at 40.
Verlander, one scout explained, is “the Tom Brady of our sport. I can see him pitching into his mid-40s, if he wants.”
Given how Verlander performed after rejoining the Astros at the trade deadline, he still looks quite formidable. He posted a 2.73 ERA after June. He will start this season on the shelf, too. Few should count him out. “Not unbeatable anymore,” one evaluator said, “but reports of his demise are exaggerated.”
17. Pablo López, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Rating: 76
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 28
2023 stats: 11-8, 3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 10.9 K/9, 3.33 FIP
2023 rating: 59
One scout described López as “the smartest pitcher in the game,” someone who flourished in Minnesota last year. He made some significant alterations to his pitch mix. Fewer changeups. More curveballs, thrown at a higher velocity. And he exchanged his cutter for a sweeper. He was throwing more strikes and missing more bats, an encouraging result for a pitcher still considered to be on the rise.
16. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 76.5
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 30
2023 stats: 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 77 2/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.14 FIP
2023 rating: 85
The 2024 campaign could serve as a hinge point in Fried’s career. He can become a free agent after this season. He has produced wonderful results for Atlanta ever since the team nabbed him as part of the return for outfielder Justin Upton in 2014. Yet his 2023 was wrecked by injuries to his hamstring and, more ominously, his left forearm. Fried needs to demonstrate his health is still intact before entering the open market.
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15. Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 77
Applicant votes: 9
Age: 20
2023 stats: 5-6, 3.15 ERA, 91 1/3 IP, 10.6 K/9, 4.11 FIP
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The hype for Pérez was real.
“The sky is the limit,” one scout said.
“Will be shocked if he doesn’t win two or three Cy Youngs before he’s 30,” another said.
Pérez dominated in a limited role last season. The Marlins took pains to protect him, and for good reason. He won’t turn 21 until April. But you can only protect pitchers so much. Earlier this month, Pérez broke the nail of his right middle finger. The busted cuticle was only a prelude. He also reported soreness in his elbow, which merited evaluation that was still ongoing as this story published.
14 (tie). Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 78
Ace votes: 4
Age: 30
2023 stats: 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 193 2/3 IP, 9.4 K/9, 4.03 FIP
2023 rating: 90.5
Nola produced an ERA last season that placed him between teammate Taijuan Walker (4.38 ERA) and Oakland left-hander JP Sears (4.54 ERA) among qualified starters. He has been about a league average pitcher since 2021, at least according to his 102 ERA+. So why did the Phillies rush to offer him a seven-year, $172 million contract this winter? The team can afford the expense. The reunion with Nola aided the club’s continuity. And Nola has demonstrated as recently as 2022 that he can be elite.
But while our pool expressed admiration for Nola’s past achievements, there was some worry about what his future will look like. He missed fewer barrels last season. He looked more vulnerable when facing hitters for a second and third time. One scout expressed concern about how Nola’s body would hold up as he traversed his 30s. “All the innings are going to catch up to him eventually,” the evaluator said.
14 (tie). Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Rating: 78
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Ace votes: 5
Age: 27
2023 stats: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 216 IP, 8.1 K/9, 3.16 FIP
2023 rating: 70.5
The concept of a modern ace revolves, for better or worse, on the ability to accumulate strikeouts, whereas Webb tends to defeat hitters by generating grounders. Webb has checked pretty much every other box during the past three seasons. He is durable and reliable. He completed more innings than any pitcher in baseball last season. He further improved his strike-throwing ability, which limited him early in his career. “I think he has another gear in him,” one scout said. But the strikeout rate caps his ceiling, at least for some. “He’s really solid,” another scout said, “but missing bats at a high volume is not in the cards.”
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants
12. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 80
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 30
2023 stats: 10-7, 3.53 ERA, 120 IP, 12.2 K/9, 2.91 FIP
2023 rating: 68
“Glasnow, over 180 innings is a No. 1 in every sense of the word,” one scout opined.
Makes sense. Except there’s one problem: Glasnow has never thrown more than the 120 innings he logged last season with Tampa Bay. The performance was enough to convince the Dodgers to acquire Glasnow and immediately ink him to a $110 million extension. The Dodgers can afford the gamble, especially when the upside is so significant. His stuff, as another scout said, is “elite.” Added an executive, “Pitches like a No. 1 — when he pitches.”
11. George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 81.5
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 7
Age: 26
2023 stats: 13-10, 3.35 ERA, 190 2/3 IP, 8.1 K/9, 3.34 FIP
2023 rating: 62.5
Kirby received a tad more love than Gilbert, his talented teammate. Seattle might have the best top trio in the sport, a group that includes another pitcher who will be mentioned shortly. Kirby excels at throwing strikes and limiting hard contact. He led the majors with a 9.05 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season, which merited a comparison to Greg Maddux from one of our respondents. Another predicted a Cy Young Award in Kirby’s future.
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10 (tie). Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 83
Ace votes: 5
Age: 28
2023 stats: 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.26 FIP
2023 rating: 80
Gallen increased his volume in 2023, making 40 starts between the regular season and Arizona’s surprising World Series run. His corresponding numbers suffered a bit. The overall picture is still sterling. We’ve reached the nitpicking portion of the survey.
10 (tie). Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 83
Ace votes: 5
Age: 33
2023 stats: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 185 IP, 11.5 K/9, 2.97 FIP
2023 rating: 76.5
One scout described Gausman’s five-year, $110 million deal with Toronto was “one of the more reasonable FA contracts in recent memory.” Gausman struck out more batters than ever last season. His ability to subdue lineups utilizing mostly his fastball and his splitter has not waned. When rising pitchers trim their arsenals in hopes of relying upon an elite fastball and an elite breaking ball, Gausman is the model.
8. Blake Snell, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Rating: 83.5
Ace votes: 4
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 31
2023 stats: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 180 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.44 FIP
2023 rating: 53
At long last, Snell signed on Monday evening, to a two-year, $62 million contract that fell far short of the initial projections. That’s a great value for the Giants. Snell can re-enter the market next winter, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll outperform his 2023 campaign. He was a dynamic force in 2018 and last season, his two Cy Young Award-winning campaigns. In between, he was less dynamic, with a 3.85 ERA from 2019 to 2022. One scout described that period of time as “hard to ignore.” Snell will always struggle with walks. He will rarely pitch deep into games. As long as he misses bats and suppresses slugging, though, he will be an asset.
7. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 84.5
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Ace votes: 6
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 31
2023 stats: 14-9, 3.34 ERA, 197 IP, 10 K/9, 3.81 FIP
2023 rating: 82.5
Castillo qualifies as the elder statesman of Seattle’s rotation, in a group that includes Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo. He also supplies explosive stuff and a reliable presence. “Steady as it gets,” one executive said. “His smooth delivery keeps him healthy even though he sits in the upper 90s.” He resides on the cusp of the tier of No. 1s.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces
6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 90
Ace votes: 8
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 25
2023 stats (in Nippon Professional Baseball): 17-6, 1.16 ERA, 171 IP, 9.3 K/9
2023 rating: Not ranked.
The Dodgers placed a $325 million wager, spread across 12 years, on Yamamoto. He is the same age Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka were when they came over from Japan in the 2010s. He figures to face some of the same obstacles that Darvish and Tanaka dealt with, adapting from everything to the schedule to the slipperiness of the baseball to the quality of the opposition to the length of the season. “Late-season fatigue is a fair concern,” one scout said. He had a shaky spring in the Cactus League. Yamamoto, another scout said, is the “biggest wild card of 2024, with No. 1 stuff. How quick can he adjust?”
Yet the arsenal looks formidable. His resume in Japan was loaded with accolades. One somewhat skeptical evaluator summed up some of the chorus: “Seems like he’s going to be an ace, but needs to go do it before I’d call him a No. 1.”
5. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 91.5
Ace votes: 12
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 35
2023 stats: 2-0, 2.67 ERA, 30 1/3 IP, 13.4 K/9, 1.54 FIP
2023 rating: 91.5
We weren’t sure if we should even include deGrom on this poll. He made only six starts in 2023 before undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. He won’t rejoin Texas until later this summer. He has not exceeded 92 innings in a season since 2019. In the end, curiosity outweighed all those concerns. After all, as one executive explained, deGrom has “the best stuff in baseball.” Everyone in the game knows deGrom’s fragility and general unavailability. So how do the evaluators evaluate him?
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“That’s impossible,” one scout said. “What do you even say about him? The assumption is that he’s going to be healthy. And when he’s healthy, you know he’s going to give you No. 1 stuff. But is he going to be healthy? Can you trust him?”
A lot of our respondents felt strongly about that last question.
“How can anyone trust this man?” one scout said.
“Do you have to play to be a No. 1?” another said.
“Maybe you should stack him with the closers,” a third said.
4. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 93
Ace votes: 13
Age: 33
2023 stats: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 192 IP, 9.9 K/9, 3.15 FIP
2023 rating: 87.5
Wheeler placed a financial exclamation mark on his mid-career renaissance when he struck a three-year, $126 million extension this spring. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for his first four seasons in Philadelphia, and now, as one scout cracked, “he’ll be paid like one!”
3. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Rating: 94
Ace votes: 15
Age: 29
2023 stats: 10-8, 3.39 ERA, 193 2/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.81 FIP
2023 rating: 97
In the eyes of our pool, Burnes has become less overpowering than he was during his breakout season in 2021. “Stuff has declined just a tick in each of the last two years,” one executive said. “He’s still great.” The second part of the sentiment appears to be a consensus. “It’s a special combination of durability and stuff,” one scout said. “I say ‘special’ because usually you have one and half the other. He’s proven he has both.” Hence why Baltimore parted with a pair of strong prospects and a draft pick to acquire Burnes for his final season before free agency.
The marriage between Burnes and the Orioles is unlikely to last beyond 2024. He figures to land a sizable contract on the open market, despite the concerns about his declining stuff. This season will offer a test of his mettle, one scout said. “He fell off just a bit,” the evaluator said. “What does he do in a tougher division?”
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2. Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 97
Ace votes: 17
Age: 25
2023 stats: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 186 2/3 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.85 FIP
2023 rating: 86
A scout asked a pertinent question about Strider: “Do we think the ‘stache gives him a three-percent strikeout bump?” Indeed, the undersized fellow with a new school arsenal and old school facial hair stands alone when it comes to generating whiffs. “No one is on his level from a strikeout standpoint,” another evaluator said. Strider, as a third scout put it, is “the measuring stick now that Verlander and Scherzer are in the denouements of their careers.”
Strider effectively operates like a high-octane reliever. Astros closer Josh Hader struck out 13.58 batters per nine innings last season — only a slightly better rate than Strider. He spent the early portion of this spring sharpening a curveball to complement his explosive combination of fastballs and sliders. If he can incorporate an additional option for his mix, the National League should shudder.
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 100
Ace votes: 20
Age: 33
2023 stats: 15-4, 2.63 ERA, 209 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.16 FIP
2023 rating: 97.5
Womp, as the kids say, womp.
Cole has been a paragon of good health dating to his days in Pittsburgh. He had made at least 30 starts in every full season since 2017. The streak may end in 2024. Cole is on track to avoid surgery and return before the All-Star break. The injury still put a scare into his franchise. Cole has been worth every penny of his $324 million contract since joining the Yankees heading into 2020. “He’s as good as anybody,” one scout said. Added another, “They don’t make ‘em like this much anymore.”
Which is why it is a bummer for Cole to begin the season on the injured list. Even the best of the best of the best cannot avoid the vagaries of the pitching profession. If guys keep going down, it could be a long year.
(Top illustration by Ray Orr / The Athletic; Photos by Mary DeCicco; Mike Carlson; Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)