College Football

Why contenders from Big 12, Pac-12 face steep road to CFP

Published Oct. 24, 2022 8:04 a.m. ET

By Bryan Fischer
FOX Sports College Football Writer

Fun and entertainment are what college football is all about, and it sure seemed like we got a double dose of both in Week 8, particularly in the Pac-12 and the Big 12.

Each had some marquee matchups that would help shape championship chases, and each had games that either helped whittle the number of unbeaten teams down to six or cut the list of perfect conference records down to just 13.

But there’s a difference between having a fun season and having one be nationally relevant — the crux both find themselves approaching. And with both the Pac-12 and Big 12 amid media rights negotiations, it’s vital for each to have some weight when it comes to the national title discussion.

Of the two, the Big 12 can take solace in the fact that they have one of those six unbeaten teams in their ranks, No. 7 TCU. The Horned Frogs had another nervy outing against previously No. 17 Kansas State but eventually took control in the second half of a 38-28 victory in Fort Worth, ensuring Sonny Dykes was the second head coach in program history to win his opening seven games.

TCU is undeniably a good team and looks poised to nab that College Football Playoff berth that infamously eluded the school back during the inaugural edition in 2014. Max Duggan remains one of the most efficient passers in the country, and the Frogs defense is opportunistic on the back end even when not playing backup quarterbacks as it did against the Wildcats.

Can TCU make the CFP?

RJ Young shares his thoughts on TCU’s prospects as the Big 12's best chance to have a team in the CFP.

But put TCU under the microscope a little further, and you might come to understand why its path to one of this year’s semifinals will be heavily reliant on running the table the rest of the way in a league that has proved that pretty much every team can beat another.

Much has been made of the Horned Frogs winning four straight against ranked opponents, something that has only been done one other time in Big 12 history. That’s a remarkable accomplishment, especially considering it took back-to-back 17-plus-point comebacks to add that to the résumé.

The trouble is that neither Oklahoma nor Kansas are ranked anymore, and No. 22 KSU is on the verge of joining them as they host Oklahoma State this week. TCU will get some credit for beating some decent opponents (yes, we’re still saying that about the Jayhawks), but the committee heavily weighs wins among their current top 25 and not the one that was in place weeks ago.

On top of this, TCU's non-conference schedule, which featured three teams with a combined three FBS wins, will not help. Add it all up, and It’s pretty clear that the Horned Frogs may be passing the eye test now, but are destined to flunk the résumé test if they end up taking a loss.

Their biggest competition in the Big 12, Oklahoma State, is in largely the same boat. The Cowboys' only blemish was losing in overtime in Fort Worth, and they’ve generally taken care of business the rest of the way, including putting away Texas with a second-half comeback. Still, their non-conference schedule was lackluster (to put it mildly) and there’s the potential for Mike Gundy’s crew to roll into the conference championship game without a single top-25 win if the league keeps beating each other up.

An undefeated TCU squad would likely make the playoff with no questions asked. But were the Horned Frogs to suffer a defeat, or if it’s OSU that runs the table, then there’s little chance at a Big 12 squad sneaking into the field over one-loss contenders out of the SEC and Big Ten — plus Clemson — barring unprecedented chaos down the stretch.

That’s not to rain on the parade of the Big 12 being tremendously fun and entertaining this season, but it is reflective of the current climate in college football that has six strong contenders East of the Mississippi.

Unfortunately for Pac-12 contenders, they face the same predicament.

Oregon’s high-scoring victory over UCLA on Saturday in a game that featured just one combined punt meant that the conference of champions would once again feature a champion with at least one loss — the bare minimum history has shown for making the gold-plated invitational at the end of the season.

Oregon takes down No. 9 UCLA

Joel Klatt reacts to Oregon's victory over UCLA and explains why the Ducks could be considered for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The Bruins may have just started to entertain lofty postseason thoughts after they thumped Utah at the Rose Bowl two weeks ago, but Chip Kelly’s lengthy rebuilding job in Westwood smartly will now eye a home game on Jan. 2 as a much more realistic and obtainable goal. For a team that nearly lost to South Alabama, that’s as wise as it is authentic.

With two losses, the Utes will have the same mindset of focusing on local matters, with the national implications all but unachievable. Kyle Whittingham’s team will still face the tall task of needing to knock off the Ducks in Eugene come late November to even get in a position to do that, too.

That largely leaves just two options in Oregon and fellow one-loss side USC to carry the Pac-12 banner into the CFP for the first time in six years.

Oregon may be the favorite the rest of the way and could end up 12-1 after getting the conference title in Las Vegas that they missed out on a year ago. It would be an impressive accomplishment for Dan Lanning in his first season and would say plenty about what direction the program is trending.

The problem is that little ol’ one in the wrong column, though. Nobody — including the Selection Committee — will forget a 49-3 shellacking at the hands of Georgia. It might not even be brought up during voting sessions, but it doesn’t help the Ducks' case that Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart essentially said that Oregon doesn't have the players to compete at the same level as his own program.

Between the actual result and those biting words, there’s no shot for Oregon to pass even a one-loss, non-SEC champion Georgia under pretty much any circumstance.

Such a conflict won’t be an issue at USC, even though the Trojans will, like TCU, have to lean heavily on the eye test. Lincoln Riley has undoubtedly gotten the program to return to prominence ahead of schedule after a 4-8 campaign in 2021, but for all the turnovers their defense has forced or as flashy as the transfer-fueled offense is, there’s not a ton of meat on the bone.

Should USC be sitting there at 12-1 with a conference title in its pocket, the Trojans will have a chance. But they’ll also have just two top-25 wins and will have to hope that business will simply take care of itself beyond the West Coast.

Being in a position to rely on losses elsewhere is not a fun place to be for any of the contenders in the Pac-12 or Big 12. But it also shouldn’t dampen the amount of entertainment we experience from either league moving forward.

RJ Young's Week 9 Top 25: Ohio State stays at No. 1

Oregon moves up in the rankings after the Ducks' big win over UCLA.

2022 Mid-Season All-Americans

Now that we’re across the midway mark for every FBS team and the vast majority have also had a week off, it’s time to reflect on the standout players from the first half of the season. As a longtime voter on the FWAA All-American panel, this is never an easy process and often results in good players just missing the cut or getting bumped down a team for the slimmest of margins.

Still, here’s who caught my eye before the stretch run toward bowl season.

Quarterback

1st team: Tennessee's Hendon Hooker

2nd team: Ohio State's C.J. Stroud

Freshman: North Carolina's Drake Maye

Running backs

1st team: Michigan's Blake Corum/Illinois' Chase Brown

2nd team: Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs/Pitt's Israel Abanikanda

Freshman: Ole Miss' Quinshon Judkins/Baylor's Richard Reese

Wide receivers

1st team: Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr./Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt

2nd team: Old Dominion's Ali Jennings III/SMU's Rashee Rice

Freshman: Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan/Coastal Carolina's Jared Brown

Tight end

1st team: Georgia's Brock Bowers

2nd team: Notre Dame's Michael Mayer

Freshman: Ball State's Tanner Koziol

Offensive line

1st team: Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr./Michigan's Olu Oluwatimi/Northwestern's Peter Skoronski/USC's Andrew Vorhees/NC State's Chandler Zavala

2nd team: TCU's Steve Avila/Oregon's Alex Forsyth/Alabama's JC Latham/Clemson's Jordan McFadden/Florida's O'Cyrus Torrence

Freshman: Texas' Kelvin Banks/Florida's Austin Barber/LSU's Will Campbell/Clemson's Blake Miller/Washington's Roger Rosengarten

Defensive line

1st team: Kansas State's Felix Anudike-Uzomah/Troy's T.J. Jackson/Michigan's Mike Morris/USC's Tuli Tuipulotu

2nd team: Clemson's Myles Murphy/Illinois' Jer'Zhan Newton/

Freshman: Stanford's David Bailey/Old Dominion's Denzel Lowry/Alabama's Jaheim Oatis/Kentucky's Deone Walker

Linebackers

1st team: Alabama's Will Anderson Jr./Iowa's Jack Campbell/Cincinnati's Ivan Pace Jr.

2nd team: USC's Eric Gentry/UCLA's Laiatu Latu/Arkansas' Drew Sanders

Freshman: Illinois' Gabe Jacas/Indiana's Dasan McCullough/LSU's Harold Perkins Jr.

Defensive backs

1st team: Utah's Clark Phillips III/Iowa's Quinn Schutle/Georgia's Christopher Smith/Illinois' Devon Witherspoon

2nd team: Mississippi State's Emmanuel Forbes/Penn State's Joey Porter Jr./Florida State's Jammie Robinson/Wisconsin's John Torchio

Freshman: Alabama's Terrion Arnold/Cal's Jeremiah Earby/South Carolina's Nick Emmanwori/Georgia's Malaki Starks

Kicker

1st team: N.C. State's Christopher Dunn

2nd team: Stanford's Joshua Karty

Freshman: Wake Forest's Matthew Dennis

Punter

1st team: San Diego State's Jack Browning

2nd team: Iowa's Tory Taylor

Freshman: Boise State's James Ferguson-Reynolds

Make It Make Sense

There were a pair of top-10 FCS matchups on Saturday in the Big Sky that really lived up to the hype and both came down to the wire. But one in particular won’t be forgotten anytime soon as Weber State lost 43-38 to Montana State thanks to setting an FCS record with four — four! — safeties off high punt snaps.

Saturday Superlatives

Best Player: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Team of the Week: Oregon

Coach of the Week: Duke’s Mike Elko

Goat of the Week: BYU’s Kalani Sitake

Heisman Five: 1. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), 2. C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), 3. Blake Corum (Michigan), 4. Bryce Young (Alabama), 5. Caleb Williams (USC)

Projected Playoff: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Clemson, 4. Michigan

Tweet of the Week

Super 16

Here’s how I voted in the FWAA/NFF Super 16 Poll this week.

Tennessee
Ohio State
TCU
Michigan
Georgia
Alabama
Clemson
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Penn State
USC
Wake Forest
UCLA
Utah
Syracuse
Illinois

Just missed the cut: Tulane

Best of the rest: North Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Maryland, Liberty

Pre-Snap Reads

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State (Saturday, Noon ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

If there’s one team that has historically played the Buckeyes close (no matter how highly thought of they are), it’s PSU in Happy Valley. Iowa’s first half provided a bit of a defensive game plan for James Franklin, but he’ll have to maximize the ability to run the football and chew up some clock. This feels like it will be close into the third quarter before the Big Ten favorites break it open.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (3:30 p.m. ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

A lot of this game is largely going to come down to which quarterback is able to go for the Wildcats. If Adrian Martinez is fully healthy, the Wildcats have a chance given the way they shorten games and force opponents to play off rhythm. Backup Will Howard looked decent against TCU but just isn’t the same caliber so it could be a much easier route to a win for the Cowboys as they keep pace in the Big 12.

No. 8 Oregon at Cal (3:30 p.m. ET; FS1 and the FOX Sports app)

It’s not the greatest of slates coming up this weekend, which usually portends a bit of chaos. Keep an eye on this one as the Ducks are in prime letdown territory going on the road for what should be a sleepy 12:30 p.m. PT kick. The Bears have won two of the last three in Berkeley and Justin Wilcox could make life a little miserable for his alma mater before Oregon pulls out the victory.

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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.