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So, Jenny Chase and BloombergNEF just upped their 2024 solar deployed volumes to 574 GW. Which is super close to 600 GW... You know who else projected 600 GW in 2024? Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier. (see article in the first comment) Uwe also projected the below capacities deployed after 2024... 2025 – 0.83 TW 2026 – 1.12 TW 2027 – 1.53 TW 2028 – 2.08 TW 2029 – 2.82 TW 2030 – 3.84 TW #solar #business #growth #exponential #opportunity
While the projection by spreadsheet can easily bring us to huge numbers assuming exponential growth, we also need to consider the limits to growth. Empirically, you can also find years of much reduced deployment after impressive surges of a year or two. Please see from the chart for EU after 2012 and China after 2017. Just as we celebrated record numbers, bad years follow. There are practical barriers that need hard work to solve.
The growth of a new successful technology remains exponential until half of the market has been reached. This will not be the case until ~ 2030. The scientific backing for this empirical observation comes from Oxford University, Prof Doyne Farmer https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243512200410X. Why should growth already collapse drastically in 2025, as BloombergNEF shows?
John Fitzgerald Weaver The upward revision of the 2024 solar deployed volumes to 574 GW by Jenny Chase and BloombergNEF, and the similar projection by Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier, is indeed a positive sign for the solar industry. It indicates a strong belief in the potential of solar energy and its role in our future energy mix However, these projections also highlight the challenges ahead. The industry will need to continue innovating and improving efficiencies to meet these targets #SolarPower #RenewableEnergy #FutureIsBright 😊🌍☀️
Dear John Thank you for the post with my forecast. The method used was developed in parallel by Oxford University. https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/empirically-grounded-technology-forecasts-and-the-energy-transition/ Prof Farmer's team did much more extensive research than my team and I could. The results confirm the results of my team.
John Fitzgerald Weaver and Sunified Group and others thinking 🤔 that these numbers are under baked Solar PV is a massive disruption Price signal on LiPO Battery 🔋 Storage makes the thesis for overbuilding even better... refer to 👇👇 Tony Seba
Congrats, that's amazing news! Keep up the great work.
I bet that BloombergNEF will adjust its forecast again in a year's time.
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2mohttps://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/