John Fitzgerald Weaver’s Post

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Solar Power | Consult | Develop | Construct | Commercial | Utility | MA/RI/NY/NJ/PA/CA/National Accounts | General Contractor

So, Jenny Chase and BloombergNEF just upped their 2024 solar deployed volumes to 574 GW. Which is super close to 600 GW... You know who else projected 600 GW in 2024? Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier. (see article in the first comment) Uwe also projected the below capacities deployed after 2024... 2025 – 0.83 TW 2026 – 1.12 TW 2027 – 1.53 TW 2028 – 2.08 TW 2029 – 2.82 TW 2030 – 3.84 TW #solar #business #growth #exponential #opportunity

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John Fitzgerald Weaver

Solar Power | Consult | Develop | Construct | Commercial | Utility | MA/RI/NY/NJ/PA/CA/National Accounts | General Contractor

2mo
Siu-Cheung M.

Electronic engineer, entrepreneur, inventor, innovation strategist.

2mo

While the projection by spreadsheet can easily bring us to huge numbers assuming exponential growth, we also need to consider the limits to growth. Empirically, you can also find years of much reduced deployment after impressive surges of a year or two. Please see from the chart for EU after 2012 and China after 2017. Just as we celebrated record numbers, bad years follow. There are practical barriers that need hard work to solve.

Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier

CEO and founding partner. Energy Change Transition Advisor, Keynote speaker. Developer and owner of an outstanding reliable energy transition and CO2 related climate change model. Confirmed by world-leading research.

2mo

The growth of a new successful technology remains exponential until half of the market has been reached. This will not be the case until ~ 2030. The scientific backing for this empirical observation comes from Oxford University, Prof Doyne Farmer https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254243512200410X. Why should growth already collapse drastically in 2025, as BloombergNEF shows?

Habib Daaboul

Solar Engineer | PV Solar Design | Solar Technician | Solar Specialist | Mechatronis Engineer | Sales Engineer| Coach

2mo

John Fitzgerald Weaver The upward revision of the 2024 solar deployed volumes to 574 GW by Jenny Chase and BloombergNEF, and the similar projection by Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier, is indeed a positive sign for the solar industry. It indicates a strong belief in the potential of solar energy and its role in our future energy mix However, these projections also highlight the challenges ahead. The industry will need to continue innovating and improving efficiencies to meet these targets #SolarPower #RenewableEnergy #FutureIsBright 😊🌍☀️

Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier

CEO and founding partner. Energy Change Transition Advisor, Keynote speaker. Developer and owner of an outstanding reliable energy transition and CO2 related climate change model. Confirmed by world-leading research.

2mo

Dear John Thank you for the post with my forecast. The method used was developed in parallel by Oxford University. https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/empirically-grounded-technology-forecasts-and-the-energy-transition/ Prof Farmer's team did much more extensive research than my team and I could. The results confirm the results of my team.

Leon Gerard Vandenberg (万 利 民)

Director - Stichting Sunified Foundation - Sunified Group B.V.

2mo

John Fitzgerald Weaver and Sunified Group and others thinking 🤔 that these numbers are under baked Solar PV is a massive disruption Price signal on LiPO Battery 🔋 Storage makes the thesis for overbuilding even better... refer to 👇👇 Tony Seba

Bryan Fleming

Elevating Manufacturing Growth: Expert Digital Marketing Strategies for Maximizing Leads & Sales

2mo

Congrats, that's amazing news! Keep up the great work.

Dr. Uwe Dahlmeier

CEO and founding partner. Energy Change Transition Advisor, Keynote speaker. Developer and owner of an outstanding reliable energy transition and CO2 related climate change model. Confirmed by world-leading research.

2mo

I bet that BloombergNEF will adjust its forecast again in a year's time.

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