U.S. players train during practice session in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, Tuesday Feb. 5, 2013. U.S. will face Honduras in a 2014 World Cup qualifying soccer match in San Pedro Sula on Wednesday.
On paper, the fourth and final round of CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifying competition seems forgiving.
There’s even a lifeline for the fourth-place finisher—a two-game playoff with a team from Oceania for an additional spot in Brazil.
CONCACAF's dominant pair—Mexico and the United States—will be joined by four countries in the Hexagonal whose combined population resembles that of the New York City metro area.
On paper, it should be easy. But in reality it never is.
Inhospitable environments, motivated opponents and inscrutable refereeing are just a few of the factors that make the Hex one of international soccer’s most treacherous gauntlets. The U.S. has survived each of the four previous editions and finished first in 2009, but it’s always tight and there nearly always are one or two demoralizing defeats to overcome along the way.
“It’s a different type of game. It’s not the flowing style of football,” U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsmann said of CONCACAF qualifying. “This is about battles, the qualifiers. It’s going into that country and getting beaten up and staying on course and somehow waiting for a second ball and put this thing in. It’s a different nature. It’s not always easy for the players to deal with that.”
Starting Wednesday afternoon in San Pedro Sula, Honduras (4 p.m. ET, BeIN Sport)—where the government has declared the day a national holiday—Klinsmann and his team will begin to see what they’re made of. The U.S. is favored to finish in the top three. But as last year’s semifinal round demonstrated, it doesn’t take much to raise concerns or pulses.
The Hex will be the region’s dominant soccer story in 2013 and will go a long way toward defining the legacy of the U.S. national team’s ambitious coach. Here is how the six teams stack up, on paper, as the stretch run to the World Cup begins:
1. MEXICO
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 6-0-0.
Current FIFA ranking: 15.
Previous World Cup appearances: 14 (last in 2010).
CONCACAF’s undisputed king has set a new standard since finishing second in the ’09 Hexagonal.
Mexico stormed to the 2011 Gold Cup championship, blasting the U.S., 4-2, in the final, while producing a scary amount of young talent. Mexican youth teams have captured an Olympic gold medal, third place at the Under-20 World Cup and an Under-17 World Cup title the past two years.
El Tri blew through the semifinal round of qualifying, winning all six games in 2012 and outscoring opponents, 15-2. Few national teams in the world boast a stable of attacking talent that can compete with the likes of Javier ‘Chicharito’ Hernández (Manchester United), Oribe Peralta (Santos Laguna), Giovani dos Santos (Mallorca) and Andrés Guardado (Valencia).
Mexico will be hungry to re-establish its dominance and is the prohibitive favorite to finish first.
2. UNITED STATES
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 4-1-1.
Current FIFA ranking: 28.
Previous World Cup appearances: 9 (last in 2010).
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Klinsmann’s team has demonstrated a knack for getting results. Whether it was finding a way to win the last three matches of last year’s semifinal round or beating the odds in exhibitions in Italy, Russia and Mexico City, the U.S. has shown its mettle even when the attack isn’t flowing like it should.
Tim Howard is the best goalkeeper in CONCACAF and backstops a squad that doesn't yield goals cheaply. If Clint Dempsey, Herculez Gomez and Jozy Altidore can find the net when they need to, the Americans should finish second. There certainly are no excuses to finish lower than third. A record of 20-0-2 in the past 22 home qualifiers—an unbeaten streak stretching back more than a decade—is a good omen as well.
3. COSTA RICA
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 3-2-1.
Current FIFA ranking: 66.
Previous World Cup appearances: 3 (last in 2006).
It’s a close call between the three Central American nations in the middle of the pack, but Costa Rica gets a slight edge thanks to its triumph at last month’s Copa Centroamericana. The Ticos qualified for two consecutive World Cups before missing out in 2010 and enter the Hex on a 6-0-2 run. The program experienced some upheaval after missing out on the 2010 World Cup but finally has a bit of stability under Colombian coach Jorge Luis Pinto.
Most of Costa Rica’s squad now plays abroad, including MLS players like Álvaro Saborío (New York Red Bulls), Rodney Wallace (Portland Timbers) and the Columbus Crew’s new marksman, Jairo Arrieta. Captain Bryan Ruiz plays at English Premier League club Fulham, where he was Dempsey’s teammate until last summer.
Costa Rica has beaten the U.S. at least once during qualifying for each of the past four World Cups.
4. HONDURAS
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 3-1-2.
Current FIFA ranking: 59.
Previous World Cup appearances: 2 (last in 2010).
It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Los Catrachos made their way to Brazil. If Honduras does qualify, it’ll do so thanks to players who are quite familiar to U.S. fans. Roger Espinoza (formerly of Sporting Kansas City, now with Wigan Athletic), Mario Martínez (Seattle Sounders) and Oscar Boniek García (Houston Dynamo) will play key roles in a mobile, athletic midfield that eventually may feature former D.C. United winger Andy Najar, who likely will miss Wednesday’s opener with an injury sustained while training with his new club, Anderlecht.
Forwards Carlo Costly (Veria FC) and Jerry Bengston (New England Revolution) are strong, powerful finishers who will test the heart of the U.S. defense Wednesday. Klinsmann’s back four remains in flux, and its performance in San Pedro Sula could set the tone for the first half of the Hex.
Honduras’ attack has sputtered since its 8-1 demolition of Canada last October (three goals in five games), and its qualifying fate might be determined by how soon it returns to life. Los Catrachos open against the U.S and Mexico.
5. PANAMA
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 7-1-2.
Current FIFA ranking: 46.
Previous World Cup appearances: 0.
It lacks the pedigree, but Panama finally might have the players to challenge for a World Cup berth. In the Hex for only the second time, Los Canaleros served notice last summer with a group-stage victory over the U.S. at the Gold Cup. This team is no pushover.
Panama finished 1-0-2 at last month’s Copa Centroamericana and will stay competitive in the Hex with a stout defense led by veteran goalkeeper Jaime Penedo and captain Felipe Baloy, a teammate of Herculez Gomez at Mexican powerhouse Santos Laguna.
Panama has a favorable schedule to open the Hex—home games vs. Costa Rica and Honduras bracketing a trip to Jamaica—and will be a threat if FC Dallas forward Blas Pérez stays healthy and finds his form.
6. JAMAICA
2014 World Cup qualifying record: 3-2-1.
Current FIFA ranking: 58.
Previous World Cup appearances: 1 (last in 1998).
The Reggae Boyz did beat the U.S. last September as the Americans put together its worst performance of the year, but they’re the Hex participant least likely to qualify for Brazil.
In December’s Caribbean Cup, which serves as one of the two Gold Cup qualifying competitions along with the Copa Centroamericana, Jamaica sustained a humiliating group-stage exit after finishing 0-2-1 in a quartet featuring lightweights Cuba, Martinique and French Guiana.
Coach Theodore Whitmore responded by naming a roster for Wednesday’s Hex opener that includes only four players from that Caribbean Cup team. Whitmore has worked hard on recruiting players with Jamaican heritage who work overseas. Of the 23 men named to the squad that will visit Mexico on Wednesday, 12 play in the U.K. and five are with clubs in Scandinavia. Several never have suited up for the national team before.
The Reggae Boyz must find some chemistry quickly to stay in the hunt.
-- Brian Straus, Sporting News. This article originally appeared on SportingNews.com.