Germany were awful in the opening game against Mexico. Are they at risk of pulling a 2014 Spain?

It’s tough, being the best. Germany’s loss to Mexico on Sunday may not have been quite as emphatic as Spain’s opening game loss to the Netherlands in 2014 — they only conceded the one goal, as opposed to five, as Spain did — but it still means that it’s happened again. The defending champions, and one of the favourites for the tournament, have face-planted the first hurdle.

So, should they be panicking? Are they going to do as the Spanish did in 2010, and crash out in the group stage? Probably not. Here are three reasons why this shock isn’t quite the same as that shock. Along with one thing that might actually be a harbinger of disaster to come.

This was concerning, not catastrophic

Let’s start with the obvious one, shall we? There is a significant difference between losing 1-0 and losing 5-1, even if both games give you zero points. The game against Mexico was close, and had Germany’s finishing been a little bit more precise, even the hyperactive Memo Ochoa, who seems to really love playing at the World Cup, might not have been able to keep them out. They weren’t good, no ...

... but they weren’t utterly, inexplicably, bafflingly awful. The Netherlands didn’t just beat the Spanish in Brazil, they humiliated them. They took them to pieces, then jumped up and down on the pieces, then pointed and laughed at the flattened pieces. Nothing worked for the Spanish, everything worked for the Dutch.

When the final whistle went, Germany came away from their defeat looking unbalanced, a little wasteful, and in need of work. Spain came away looking broken and old, beyond all recovery, in need of nothing more complicated than a quick trip home and a couple of months in bed.

Nobody needs to be perfect in game one

Seven games is a long time in football. Well, it isn’t really. But it is enough time to spot a problem and address it ... if it can be addressed.

Germany struggled for various reasons — the space behind their midfield and Joshua Kimmich, the apparent knackeredness of Sami Khedira, the close attention paid to Toni Kroos by noted man-marker Carlos Vela — but they all felt like ordinary, mundane, footballing reasons. Opportunities identified and exploited by Mexico. Things that can be fixed.

Whereas Spain, in 2014, looked utterly rotten from head to toe. (Though it’s interesting that as it turned out, they weren’t: seven of the players that started against the Netherlands in 2014, started against Portugal this time around. Only Iker Casillas, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, and César Azpilicueta have gone, along with Vicente del Bosque. Big names, yes. Loadbearing names. But not a head to toe reconstruction effort.)

Anyway, there are things Germany can do with the squad they have. Kroos and Khedira can turn around occasionally. Kimmich can stay off the fizzy drinks. Leon Goretzka and İlkay Gündoğan can probably help. Tweaks and adjustments. Spain needed to change their keeper-captain, their most experienced midfielder, and maybe their manager as well. That’s a lot for a month.

There is another, more encouraging point of comparison. In 2010, a highly-fancied Spanish side lost the opening game of the tournament to Switzerland. A surprising 1-0 loss. But they didn’t panic. They swapped a couple of players around and went on to lift the trophy. Should Germany do something similar, then this loss to Mexico will be understood as the catalyst.

This was Germany’s hardest game of the group stage

For two reasons. The first is that Mexico weren’t just good, they were good in a way that exposed and magnified Germany’s flaws. Three quick players up at all times, Vela sat on Kroos, Hirving Lozano given the freedom of Russia behind Kimmich: it was the right plan, with the right players. But not everybody has a Lozano.

The second is that this group isn’t as tough as the one Spain found themselves in last time around. Spain’s next game was against Chile, who would go on to win the Copa America for the next two straight years. Germany’s next two opponents are South Korea and Sweden: potentially frustrating, but not quite at the same level.

Even with this opening loss, it will be a surprise if Germany fail to make it out of the group. Second place will mean a game against either England or Belgium ... but then, that’s what first place would have meant as well. Group G is kind of hard to call.

But … is Mats Hummels about to kick all the way off?

The one imponderable in all this is how the defeat is handled by the German squad and their management. Germany don’t really have the same tradition of inter-squad meltdowns as, say, France or the Netherlands. But it’s fair to say that Mats Hummels isn’t entirely happy:

“That’s what I often talk about internally, to no affect.” It’s not quite “My manager is an idiot and doesn’t listen to me.” But it’s not too far off. Watch this space. And watch the space in front of Hummels.