This article is part of the Guardian’s World Cup 2014 Experts’ Network, a co-operation between 32 of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for the finals in Brazil. theguardian.com is running previews from four countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 12 June.
When Óscar Tabárez began his second stint in charge of the Uruguay national team he stated categorically that his teams would play a fixed formation: the traditional 4-3-3.
However, a bad defeat suffered on his debut in the 2007 Copa América in Venezuela (0-3 to Peru) meant that his tactical ideas had to become more flexible. Uruguay are not a team that like to dominate possession of the ball. They do not have the capacity to play a possession-based game.
However, they have their strengths. They are tough in defence and at marking in midfield and they are lethal on the counter-attack since their main stars play in attack, where their penetrating style makes them dangerous against any side, particularly on the flanks since the team dispensed with a playmaker after facing France in their first World Cup match in South Africa 2010, which finished 0-0.
Tabárez likes to set up his teams on the basis of the opposition’s strengths in order to weaken them and then unleash his team’s potential on the pitch. While much could still change for the coach, especially considering Luis Suárez’s injury, it is likely that in the World Cup he will start in the opening game against Costa Rica with a 4-4-2, with Fernando Muslera in goal, Maximiliano Pereira, Diego Lugano, Diego Godín and Martín Cáceres as the back four.
The midfield will comprise Cristhian Stuani, Arévalo Ríos, Walter Gargano and Cristian Rodríguez, with the two big-name strikers, Edinson Cavani and Suárez, paired up front. If the latter is still injured, as looks likely given his knee operation, the first alternative is Diego Forlán.
A more defensive option is for Álvaro González to play in place of Stuani in midfield, which would give the team a more defensive base, although it is perhaps more likely to be seen in the games against England and Italy.
In the recent qualifiers, this was the line-up used most although Tabárez has also varied things, playing with three defenders (as in the 4-0 defeat to Colombia, so not a great success) or with Suárez, Cavani and Forlán together in attack with Forlán tending to drop deeper to dictate the play.
Who is the player who is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup?
That’s a hard one to answer. One of the characteristics that define Uruguay – both a strength and a weakness – is that everyone knows the way they play and that has not changed in nearly four years. Tabárez is not fond of surprises; he prefers tried and tested work. Taking that into account, one surprise could be Nicolás Lodeiro (who plays for Corinthians in Brazil). As either a deep-lying playmaker or left-sided midfielder, he can bring a lot of quality to the team.
Who is the player who is going to disappoint the most?
The captain, Diego Lugano, is facing an enormous challenge: at 33 years of age his best days appear to be behind him, although he is a key player and leader in the squad. The odds are against him but he has the challenge of proving that he still has it.
What is the realistic aim for your team at the World Cup and why?
Much will depend on how Luis Suárez’s injury heals, for what it means both in football and in morale terms. If he recovers, Uruguay are a mature team capable of taking on anyone. Depending on the luck of the draw, a logical scenario is that they could make the quarter-finals.
Pablo Benítez writes for El Observador in Uruguay